* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942020 09/29/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 30 36 45 53 60 62 62 60 55 49 43 36 30 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 30 36 45 53 60 62 62 60 55 49 43 36 30 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 27 28 30 32 35 37 38 37 34 30 25 20 17 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 6 11 14 10 3 1 1 2 2 12 16 29 28 28 39 49 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 6 5 4 4 5 1 4 0 -1 0 0 1 4 6 -5 -5 SHEAR DIR 57 20 21 31 25 32 125 351 241 240 239 249 239 246 234 243 229 SST (C) 28.8 28.9 28.9 29.0 28.8 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.1 27.8 26.6 25.5 25.0 23.8 23.5 23.5 23.7 POT. INT. (KT) 152 154 154 156 154 151 152 152 146 143 130 118 112 99 96 98 100 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.1 -53.0 -52.6 -52.9 -52.7 -52.4 -52.6 -52.3 -52.3 -51.9 -51.8 -51.7 -51.8 -51.3 -51.7 -51.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 7 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 2 3 700-500 MB RH 75 76 76 75 73 75 74 70 70 65 59 58 51 47 43 43 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 42 51 51 55 61 84 84 88 105 88 67 54 54 26 56 65 58 200 MB DIV 118 134 129 125 113 120 111 64 104 43 13 10 -4 1 12 14 27 700-850 TADV -5 -6 -11 -11 -8 -12 -6 -6 -1 -4 6 11 21 10 21 15 14 LAND (KM) 634 696 748 825 916 1023 1137 1266 1367 1455 1481 1543 1658 1746 1744 1761 1800 LAT (DEG N) 13.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 106.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 11 13 13 14 13 13 13 11 10 10 8 7 8 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 19 22 19 13 12 25 15 15 11 11 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 549 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. 1. 5. 12. 18. 24. 28. 31. 32. 33. 32. 31. 30. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 8. 7. 4. 1. -2. -7. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 11. 20. 28. 35. 37. 37. 35. 30. 24. 18. 11. 5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.6 106.7 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942020 INVEST 09/29/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.81 7.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.3 19.6 to 1.4 0.57 4.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 123.8 -33.0 to 160.6 0.81 7.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.22 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.14 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 50.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.85 -5.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.92 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 28% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 23.1% 22.8% 0.0% 0.0% 21.7% 27.5% 0.0% Logistic: 4.2% 21.0% 13.5% 7.6% 0.8% 23.8% 17.3% 13.2% Bayesian: 1.2% 3.9% 2.9% 0.4% 0.0% 0.8% 0.6% 3.3% Consensus: 1.8% 16.0% 13.1% 2.7% 0.3% 15.5% 15.1% 5.5% DTOPS: 0.0% 4.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 10.0% 14.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942020 INVEST 09/29/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##