* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942020 08/15/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 35 39 42 43 42 38 33 27 22 17 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 35 39 42 43 42 38 33 27 22 17 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 28 29 27 24 20 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 8 6 5 5 9 10 14 16 17 23 22 20 14 15 18 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 4 2 2 4 0 0 -2 0 0 7 7 7 1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 42 59 30 41 5 294 292 280 278 243 237 238 228 218 222 237 237 SST (C) 29.2 29.1 28.9 27.8 26.3 25.2 23.1 22.3 21.9 22.3 22.5 22.9 23.5 24.2 24.7 25.2 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 157 156 154 143 128 117 96 87 82 86 88 92 98 105 111 116 122 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.4 -52.2 -51.8 -52.0 -51.8 -51.2 -51.0 -50.9 -51.3 -51.4 -51.9 -52.2 -52.9 -53.1 -53.2 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 3 5 5 6 700-500 MB RH 75 74 74 72 69 65 57 50 48 43 42 38 35 31 29 28 28 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 17 16 17 18 18 16 15 13 12 10 9 9 8 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 58 62 62 44 29 29 12 -5 21 8 25 10 7 6 12 12 17 200 MB DIV 101 102 90 67 50 23 -15 -7 -11 -4 -15 -20 -32 -22 -18 3 -20 700-850 TADV -4 -7 -4 -3 -6 -8 -10 5 4 3 4 3 6 2 3 2 3 LAND (KM) 1106 1037 976 891 831 833 924 1159 1340 1520 1745 1883 1644 1416 1176 932 702 LAT (DEG N) 15.3 16.3 17.3 18.4 19.5 21.7 23.5 24.7 25.4 25.5 25.3 24.8 24.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 116.8 117.0 117.2 117.5 118.0 119.9 122.9 126.1 129.3 132.1 134.9 137.4 139.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 11 12 13 16 16 16 13 13 12 11 11 12 12 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 19 18 18 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 9 CX,CY: -1/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 723 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. 0. 2. 6. 11. 15. 17. 19. 19. 19. 16. 14. 13. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 3. 0. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -10. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 2. 1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 10. 14. 17. 18. 17. 13. 8. 2. -3. -8. -11. -15. -17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.3 116.8 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942020 INVEST 08/15/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.75 7.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.9 19.6 to 1.4 0.70 6.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 82.0 -33.0 to 160.6 0.59 5.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.62 3.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.10 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 81.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.81 -5.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.86 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 2.2 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 27.3% 24.4% 0.0% 0.0% 19.1% 17.5% 0.0% Logistic: 2.3% 13.0% 6.9% 3.8% 0.4% 2.6% 0.3% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 13.6% 10.5% 1.3% 0.1% 7.3% 5.9% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 4.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 3.0% 4.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942020 INVEST 08/15/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##