* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942020 08/15/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 36 43 46 49 48 44 40 36 31 28 27 27 30 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 36 43 46 49 48 44 40 36 31 28 27 27 30 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 28 29 30 30 28 25 22 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 11 8 4 7 5 8 9 13 11 9 9 8 8 5 4 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 1 0 6 0 -2 -1 -2 0 1 1 -3 0 1 1 SHEAR DIR 39 44 49 42 64 5 293 285 276 271 233 216 190 211 202 248 228 SST (C) 29.3 29.2 29.0 28.9 28.4 25.8 24.7 23.2 22.4 22.2 22.6 23.0 24.0 24.4 25.5 26.5 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 157 156 154 154 149 122 112 96 87 85 89 94 104 109 120 129 138 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.1 -52.4 -52.2 -51.8 -52.2 -51.5 -51.2 -50.8 -51.2 -51.5 -52.0 -52.3 -52.9 -53.0 -53.3 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 4 2 0 0 0 0 1 3 4 5 6 6 700-500 MB RH 75 74 73 73 74 69 63 56 50 47 42 40 36 35 31 37 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 15 16 17 18 18 17 16 14 13 11 10 10 9 8 9 850 MB ENV VOR 52 54 58 68 54 30 28 25 25 26 18 32 36 51 56 66 65 200 MB DIV 110 101 97 95 79 39 19 7 -17 -12 -14 9 -8 -8 -6 -25 -24 700-850 TADV -8 -6 -5 -4 -4 -12 -2 -7 6 0 6 -1 5 0 3 0 0 LAND (KM) 1201 1150 1098 1036 949 847 855 976 1218 1426 1657 1943 1810 1581 1394 1300 1296 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 15.1 15.9 16.9 17.9 20.0 22.1 23.5 24.4 24.5 23.9 22.7 21.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 116.9 117.2 117.4 117.6 117.7 118.7 120.7 123.5 126.6 129.4 132.2 134.9 137.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 9 10 11 13 14 15 14 13 13 15 14 15 13 12 10 HEAT CONTENT 19 18 17 19 19 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 6 CX,CY: -1/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 650 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 15.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -0. 1. 6. 12. 16. 19. 21. 22. 21. 19. 18. 17. 17. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 6. 4. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 0. -2. -4. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 18. 21. 24. 23. 19. 15. 11. 6. 3. 2. 2. 5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.3 116.9 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942020 INVEST 08/15/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.81 7.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.7 19.6 to 1.4 0.60 5.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 96.4 -33.0 to 160.6 0.67 6.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.59 3.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.15 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 71.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.83 -6.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.84 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 2.2 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 28.1% 25.1% 0.0% 0.0% 20.9% 20.1% 0.0% Logistic: 1.8% 15.2% 7.7% 4.4% 0.8% 6.8% 1.8% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.2% 1.2% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 14.8% 11.1% 1.5% 0.3% 9.2% 7.3% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 4.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 10.0% 6.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942020 INVEST 08/15/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##