* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932020 09/20/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 33 40 47 54 60 62 63 66 64 64 65 66 68 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 33 40 47 54 60 62 63 66 64 64 65 66 68 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 30 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 9 8 12 14 14 8 8 6 4 6 6 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 -2 -2 0 2 0 -2 -3 -1 -2 -1 0 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 37 23 59 59 57 40 69 53 33 3 308 257 279 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.6 28.5 28.7 29.2 28.7 28.0 27.2 27.0 26.1 26.5 26.6 26.4 26.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 150 150 152 158 152 145 136 134 124 127 128 127 124 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.0 -51.8 -52.2 -52.2 -51.5 -52.1 -51.8 -52.0 -51.8 -52.0 -51.5 -51.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.7 1.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 4 4 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 72 74 73 69 67 64 60 59 57 52 51 49 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 12 13 14 17 18 19 21 21 22 25 25 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 9 24 41 42 43 62 53 43 42 46 41 46 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 43 69 80 58 47 53 15 36 17 8 -1 12 -17 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -4 -4 -11 -10 -7 -3 0 2 4 5 10 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 561 577 614 699 757 764 837 895 1004 1121 1200 1275 1371 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 107.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 11 12 12 12 12 11 9 9 6 6 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 15 11 11 15 17 10 5 5 0 2 1 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 480 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 1. 6. 12. 18. 23. 26. 28. 30. 30. 31. 31. 32. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 14. 15. 16. 18. 17. 16. 14. 13. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 15. 22. 29. 35. 37. 38. 41. 39. 39. 40. 41. 43. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.8 107.3 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932020 INVEST 09/20/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.80 6.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.3 19.6 to 1.4 0.46 3.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.4 -33.0 to 160.6 0.48 3.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.43 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.11 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 60.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.84 -5.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.80 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 18.8% 17.5% 0.0% 0.0% 15.5% 16.4% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 10.3% 3.0% 1.7% 0.4% 2.5% 1.8% 1.4% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 9.8% 6.9% 0.6% 0.1% 6.0% 6.1% 0.5% DTOPS: 0.0% 4.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 4.0% 9.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932020 INVEST 09/20/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##