* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932018 11/29/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 25 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 29 25 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 30 30 28 26 23 25 26 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 32 27 26 23 24 30 36 41 50 57 60 60 59 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 2 3 5 5 1 4 5 2 -2 -2 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 254 257 259 257 250 252 256 270 268 275 276 280 279 SST (C) 28.1 28.6 28.9 29.1 29.9 25.9 26.1 26.3 26.2 26.2 25.0 18.3 17.0 POT. INT. (KT) 144 152 156 158 166 124 126 127 125 127 117 68 70 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.4 -53.4 -53.3 -53.4 -54.0 -54.2 -54.5 -54.9 -55.2 -56.0 -57.0 -58.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 6 4 8 8 12 11 10 4 0 700-500 MB RH 61 59 57 56 55 54 50 40 34 29 33 50 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 9 7 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 23 40 49 32 46 44 7 -38 -60 -73 -107 -119 -102 200 MB DIV 54 51 20 7 0 -7 0 2 1 -2 19 38 14 700-850 TADV 13 6 3 0 1 4 15 13 11 17 21 43 18 LAND (KM) 449 346 247 123 -9 -173 106 229 154 323 251 -109 237 LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.4 15.8 16.3 17.0 18.4 19.6 20.8 22.1 24.1 27.1 30.7 33.2 LONG(DEG W) 105.6 104.6 103.1 101.5 100.1 97.5 94.9 92.6 91.2 90.0 88.1 83.1 74.8 STM SPEED (KT) 8 13 16 16 15 14 13 10 10 14 22 33 40 HEAT CONTENT 19 24 32 36 28 3 3 10 3 10 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 5 CX,CY: 3/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 791 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 4. 10. 15. 20. 24. 26. 26. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -5. -14. -26. -40. -52. -59. -63. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -8. -8. -7. -5. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 8. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -5. -9. -13. -19. -23. -28. -33. -38. -45. -48. -51. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.9 105.6 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932018 INVEST 11/29/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.81 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.4 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.8 1.8 to 106.7 0.25 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.31 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.52 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.22 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 129.0 721.6 to -82.5 0.74 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 15.2 62.3 to 0.0 0.76 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.45 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932018 INVEST 11/29/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX