* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922020 09/13/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 31 33 33 34 39 42 46 41 42 37 35 33 31 28 24 V (KT) LAND 30 31 31 33 33 34 39 42 46 41 42 37 35 33 31 28 24 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 33 32 32 31 30 28 26 23 21 19 17 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 17 18 18 13 12 13 17 12 10 11 11 16 19 18 21 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 4 2 1 1 1 0 0 -1 -1 1 2 0 -1 3 3 3 SHEAR DIR 52 40 34 40 41 38 58 72 100 88 127 157 156 175 194 213 218 SST (C) 28.6 28.5 28.3 28.0 27.8 27.6 26.9 26.7 26.9 26.8 26.5 26.5 25.6 24.2 23.4 22.8 22.5 POT. INT. (KT) 151 150 147 144 142 140 132 129 130 129 126 126 118 104 96 90 86 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.8 -52.2 -52.2 -51.7 -52.0 -51.5 -51.8 -51.5 -51.9 -51.6 -52.0 -51.9 -52.0 -51.9 -51.9 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 5 6 5 5 4 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 75 72 70 67 64 61 56 56 55 54 53 50 43 41 39 35 31 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 20 19 21 20 21 23 24 25 22 22 19 17 15 13 11 8 850 MB ENV VOR 49 50 56 59 62 52 62 50 44 42 36 32 32 21 6 -2 -7 200 MB DIV 95 88 65 53 31 16 10 -10 -27 -26 -7 -16 0 -1 3 -4 -23 700-850 TADV -11 -16 -11 -9 -1 -1 -6 -7 -1 -2 4 0 1 4 6 5 6 LAND (KM) 772 765 762 783 822 879 993 1113 1212 1273 1291 1312 1327 1353 1405 1438 1443 LAT (DEG N) 16.4 16.9 17.5 18.0 18.4 19.0 19.3 19.4 19.4 19.4 19.7 20.1 20.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 112.6 113.6 114.5 115.4 116.3 118.1 119.9 121.4 122.6 123.5 124.1 124.8 125.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 10 9 9 8 7 5 3 3 5 6 8 9 9 7 HEAT CONTENT 20 15 11 8 7 7 3 2 4 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 404 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 31.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 20. 22. 24. 25. 25. 24. 22. 21. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. -0. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -10. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 5. 7. 9. 5. 5. 0. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 9. 12. 16. 11. 12. 7. 5. 3. 1. -2. -6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 16.4 112.6 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922020 INVEST 09/13/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.70 4.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.4 19.6 to 1.4 0.18 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.4 -33.0 to 160.6 0.51 3.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 31.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.18 0.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.09 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 105.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.79 -3.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.9 2.2 to -1.9 0.99 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.1% 16.6% 12.0% 7.5% 0.0% 13.0% 13.9% 9.1% Logistic: 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.4% 5.6% 4.0% 2.5% 0.0% 4.4% 4.7% 3.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 3.0% 5.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922020 INVEST 09/13/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##