* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922020 09/11/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 26 28 35 44 56 63 66 69 74 73 73 73 73 73 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 26 28 35 44 56 63 66 69 74 73 73 73 73 73 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 21 21 23 25 28 29 30 32 35 37 40 42 46 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 19 19 18 20 15 14 11 6 7 2 6 4 7 8 5 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 3 2 4 2 6 0 3 0 -2 0 -4 -4 -3 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 48 53 59 52 50 47 57 50 28 31 22 350 38 20 42 18 48 SST (C) 29.1 28.7 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.2 28.4 28.8 27.5 26.9 26.8 26.7 26.2 26.8 27.3 27.3 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 155 152 149 149 149 147 149 154 140 135 133 131 125 130 134 135 131 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.8 -53.0 -52.7 -52.2 -52.4 -52.0 -52.4 -51.9 -52.2 -51.8 -52.0 -52.0 -52.3 -52.1 -52.5 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.7 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 6 7 7 7 6 5 4 3 2 2 3 3 4 5 700-500 MB RH 82 83 82 80 78 79 76 73 66 60 57 61 62 65 65 65 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 10 12 12 13 15 19 19 19 20 24 23 24 25 24 23 850 MB ENV VOR -1 -2 8 23 20 50 47 40 38 40 71 93 91 81 62 47 40 200 MB DIV 89 94 103 102 107 80 78 36 30 11 0 20 -8 1 22 25 9 700-850 TADV -1 -1 0 0 -3 -7 -6 -5 -4 0 -2 -6 -5 -5 -2 -2 -3 LAND (KM) 616 614 623 627 626 638 674 634 741 923 1182 1398 1595 1742 1797 1731 1600 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 12.9 13.3 13.8 14.4 15.6 17.0 18.3 19.2 19.6 19.5 19.1 18.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 104.1 105.0 106.0 106.9 107.8 109.5 111.5 113.6 116.2 119.3 122.3 124.9 126.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 10 10 11 12 13 14 15 13 11 8 5 4 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 25 21 19 22 18 9 14 14 5 3 3 3 0 3 5 5 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 640 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 12. 20. 26. 30. 33. 35. 36. 37. 38. 39. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. -1. -3. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 6. 12. 13. 14. 15. 19. 16. 16. 15. 13. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 8. 15. 24. 36. 43. 46. 49. 54. 53. 53. 53. 53. 53. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 12.6 104.1 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922020 INVEST 09/11/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.83 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.7 19.6 to 1.4 0.05 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 99.0 -33.0 to 160.6 0.68 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.51 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.18 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 22.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.88 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.89 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 1.7% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 1.4% 6.0% 6.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% Consensus: 0.1% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 2.0% 2.3% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922020 INVEST 09/11/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##