* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922020 06/22/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 30 34 40 45 55 62 63 58 53 48 45 44 43 42 43 42 V (KT) LAND 25 30 34 40 45 55 62 63 58 53 48 45 44 43 42 43 42 V (KT) LGEM 25 28 30 33 36 42 47 47 45 43 40 37 34 33 33 34 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 10 7 7 8 13 9 16 15 13 13 12 10 12 13 8 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 1 1 0 7 1 -3 -1 0 1 -3 -1 -1 0 0 1 SHEAR DIR 68 77 82 66 84 67 104 80 123 137 145 139 124 75 80 88 78 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.1 29.0 29.1 28.4 27.4 27.2 25.9 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.1 27.1 27.7 28.1 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 160 160 158 157 158 151 140 137 122 122 122 121 123 134 141 145 142 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.1 -52.3 -52.1 -51.8 -52.5 -52.1 -52.5 -52.5 -52.5 -52.5 -52.8 -53.0 -53.2 -53.1 -52.9 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 4 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 4 700-500 MB RH 69 69 71 68 65 63 59 59 53 56 55 54 51 51 53 56 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 8 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 11 30 42 45 54 49 46 49 1 1 15 25 1 10 22 26 18 200 MB DIV 65 67 83 95 102 83 41 7 -19 -36 -39 -34 0 -3 4 -14 -31 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -2 -5 -5 -11 0 -11 2 3 2 2 1 2 2 1 2 LAND (KM) 822 875 919 986 1081 1204 1345 1496 1638 1783 1915 2018 2140 2305 2521 2710 2773 LAT (DEG N) 11.8 12.1 12.5 12.9 13.2 13.8 14.6 14.9 15.2 15.1 14.9 14.7 14.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 107.0 108.4 109.8 111.3 112.8 116.2 119.3 122.0 124.2 125.9 127.3 128.5 129.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 14 15 15 15 17 14 12 9 7 6 6 7 8 11 9 5 HEAT CONTENT 35 36 29 31 41 14 11 5 0 1 0 0 0 6 9 11 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 605 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 35.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 12. 18. 23. 27. 29. 30. 31. 31. 32. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 7. 4. 1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 15. 20. 30. 37. 38. 33. 28. 24. 20. 19. 18. 17. 18. 17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.8 107.0 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922020 INVEST 06/22/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.85 9.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 5.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.1 19.6 to 1.4 0.63 6.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 82.4 -33.0 to 160.6 0.60 6.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.84 5.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 34.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.30 1.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 95.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.80 -6.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.63 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 45% is 3.6 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 30% is 5.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 45.2% 30.5% 0.0% 0.0% 25.9% 30.5% 0.0% Logistic: 15.8% 57.2% 41.9% 30.9% 10.9% 21.6% 4.9% 9.4% Bayesian: 3.0% 22.1% 11.8% 3.9% 0.0% 3.4% 3.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.3% 41.5% 28.1% 11.6% 3.7% 17.0% 12.8% 3.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922020 INVEST 06/22/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##