* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922016 09/09/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 34 38 47 58 68 76 79 78 76 74 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 34 38 47 58 68 76 79 78 76 74 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 30 32 35 41 50 60 69 73 71 67 66 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 7 9 10 11 16 13 6 3 6 2 6 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 -5 -5 -6 -7 -2 -3 0 -3 -4 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 63 53 45 46 51 57 46 56 282 189 208 120 89 SST (C) 29.0 29.1 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.3 28.8 27.8 27.0 26.9 27.1 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 156 157 158 158 156 155 157 153 142 132 130 130 130 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.1 -53.1 -53.3 -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 -53.2 -52.9 -52.4 -52.8 -52.2 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 6 6 7 7 8 7 6 5 6 6 700-500 MB RH 72 71 71 71 68 63 59 57 55 54 53 47 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 10 11 12 13 16 19 22 25 25 25 27 850 MB ENV VOR 19 18 21 19 15 3 5 12 0 3 -12 -11 2 200 MB DIV 22 18 20 26 29 46 43 53 63 57 38 27 9 700-850 TADV -1 -3 -4 -4 -3 -4 -4 -3 -3 -1 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 1110 1165 1226 1296 1344 1343 1249 1119 1025 992 1051 1090 1083 LAT (DEG N) 10.9 11.2 11.4 11.5 11.7 12.2 13.5 15.3 17.2 18.4 18.6 18.4 18.6 LONG(DEG W) 110.5 111.8 112.9 113.9 114.8 115.9 116.5 117.0 117.9 119.0 120.0 120.3 120.4 STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 10 9 8 6 9 10 10 6 4 1 2 HEAT CONTENT 14 13 12 12 12 16 32 40 14 11 14 17 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 492 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 4.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 13. 21. 26. 29. 30. 31. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 12. 17. 20. 20. 19. 19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 13. 22. 33. 43. 51. 54. 53. 51. 49. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.9 110.5 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922016 INVEST 09/09/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.45 3.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.8 40.3 to 144.5 0.88 4.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 12.6 0.0 to 75.9 0.17 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.8 38.9 to 2.1 0.52 3.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.59 3.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.0 -11.0 to 135.3 0.23 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 72.4 638.0 to -68.2 0.80 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.1 to -1.7 0.43 -0.4 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 23.2% 15.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.2% 20.1% 11.3% 2.7% 1.2% 8.7% 1.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 6.6% 1.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 16.6% 9.6% 1.0% 0.4% 2.9% 0.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922016 INVEST 09/09/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##