* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922016 06/05/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 29 29 32 32 32 33 36 40 41 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 29 26 27 27 29 30 33 37 32 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 27 24 26 26 28 26 25 26 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 6 9 16 21 22 27 23 23 16 17 17 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 -1 0 2 2 -3 0 0 -2 -4 -4 -5 SHEAR DIR 69 110 143 168 183 187 184 182 178 177 157 154 150 SST (C) 30.8 30.9 31.0 31.0 30.9 30.6 29.7 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 170 170 171 172 172 171 161 157 155 155 156 156 155 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.8 -52.3 -52.8 -52.6 -52.5 -52.4 -52.2 -52.3 -52.6 -52.7 -53.0 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 8 7 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 700-500 MB RH 61 64 64 65 65 66 66 70 71 72 70 72 69 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 6 6 6 7 5 5 3 3 4 5 7 8 850 MB ENV VOR 23 14 6 0 -5 6 24 42 52 71 61 75 64 200 MB DIV 79 74 74 73 55 57 44 49 75 80 85 109 82 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -1 0 0 -1 1 0 0 -1 0 0 LAND (KM) 540 462 371 270 160 -40 -113 -15 22 63 114 82 -72 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 12.1 12.8 13.6 14.5 16.1 17.3 18.1 18.6 19.0 19.3 19.5 19.7 LONG(DEG W) 99.9 99.5 99.0 98.4 97.8 96.4 95.0 94.0 93.4 93.3 94.1 95.3 97.2 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 9 10 11 10 8 5 3 2 5 8 10 HEAT CONTENT 46 50 56 58 45 48 43 4 9 19 19 17 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 7 CX,CY: 4/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 542 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 7.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -1. 4. 13. 21. 27. 30. 32. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -2. -6. -10. -13. -13. -13. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. -2. -3. -2. 0. 2. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -4. -4. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 7. 7. 7. 8. 11. 15. 16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.5 99.9 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922016 INVEST 06/05/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 2.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 146.0 40.3 to 144.5 1.00 5.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 51.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.67 4.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.6 38.9 to 2.1 0.39 2.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.41 2.4 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 71.0 -11.0 to 135.3 0.56 1.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 70.4 638.0 to -68.2 0.80 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.1 to -1.7 0.46 -0.5 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 2.2 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 27.8% 20.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 10.5% 16.3% 16.1% 4.1% 1.9% 13.0% 6.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 5.0% 2.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.5% 2.6% Consensus: 3.5% 16.3% 13.2% 1.4% 0.6% 4.5% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922016 INVEST 06/05/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##