* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912020 09/12/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 20 20 21 24 28 30 30 28 25 24 25 27 28 28 28 V (KT) LAND 20 20 20 20 21 24 28 30 30 28 25 24 25 27 28 28 28 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 20 20 19 19 19 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 14 15 12 14 17 24 25 30 30 34 26 18 7 6 12 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -4 -1 -1 -5 -1 0 0 0 1 6 3 -1 -3 -2 1 SHEAR DIR 114 113 116 101 113 88 84 89 80 82 87 89 103 106 172 239 240 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.1 26.9 26.0 25.5 24.8 23.5 POT. INT. (KT) 150 149 148 148 148 147 145 146 146 147 147 144 131 122 117 110 97 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.2 -52.2 -52.2 -52.0 -52.4 -51.8 -52.5 -52.1 -52.5 -52.5 -52.7 -52.6 -52.7 -52.6 -52.5 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 4 5 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 3 3 2 2 700-500 MB RH 56 56 58 59 60 58 62 64 65 65 61 63 57 51 44 39 33 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 72 92 105 120 125 96 97 85 73 35 20 13 33 40 34 4 -12 200 MB DIV 22 27 50 46 70 32 37 34 14 -15 -19 -18 -3 4 -13 0 -4 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 2 2 -10 -19 -8 -2 2 8 14 LAND (KM) 982 1050 1105 1171 1222 1351 1444 1514 1513 1452 1328 1206 1119 1080 1031 1015 997 LAT (DEG N) 17.6 17.4 17.3 17.1 17.0 16.5 16.2 15.8 15.7 16.0 16.8 17.9 19.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 117.8 118.6 119.3 120.0 120.6 121.8 122.7 123.2 123.1 122.6 121.8 121.3 121.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 6 6 6 4 2 2 4 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 18 22 21 17 15 15 16 19 19 16 14 13 3 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 475 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -0. 1. 5. 12. 20. 26. 30. 34. 36. 38. 39. 39. 39. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 3. -1. -7. -12. -17. -19. -19. -17. -15. -16. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. 0. 1. 4. 8. 10. 10. 8. 5. 4. 5. 7. 9. 8. 8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 17.6 117.8 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912020 INVEST 09/12/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.81 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.1 19.6 to 1.4 0.36 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.0 -33.0 to 160.6 0.39 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.25 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.15 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 118.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.77 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.63 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912020 INVEST 09/12/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##