* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912020 09/11/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 19 18 18 19 22 26 30 32 32 31 30 31 32 35 39 44 V (KT) LAND 20 19 18 18 19 22 26 30 32 32 31 30 31 32 35 39 44 V (KT) LGEM 20 18 17 17 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 3 7 11 9 9 9 15 13 13 12 10 8 8 7 8 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -3 -5 -5 -2 -6 -5 -5 -4 -5 -1 -3 -2 -5 -6 -6 SHEAR DIR 125 92 115 119 130 125 129 117 120 134 152 171 165 137 131 123 105 SST (C) 27.9 28.1 28.3 28.4 28.3 28.1 28.0 28.3 27.2 27.6 27.4 27.1 27.1 27.5 27.8 28.0 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 142 144 146 147 147 144 144 147 136 140 138 134 134 137 141 142 144 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.2 -52.0 -52.1 -52.2 -52.0 -52.5 -52.2 -52.7 -52.3 -52.6 -52.6 -52.8 -52.9 -53.4 -53.6 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 3 3 4 700-500 MB RH 54 56 59 58 57 57 55 56 58 58 61 64 67 65 63 61 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 61 72 80 96 105 132 104 96 80 78 64 48 40 34 23 26 28 200 MB DIV 16 29 27 29 41 60 46 28 21 29 15 29 4 -8 -7 3 10 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 0 2 1 2 4 2 1 -2 -2 0 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 829 882 922 965 1027 1151 1302 1476 1646 1796 1946 2111 2252 2152 2066 2001 1939 LAT (DEG N) 18.0 18.0 18.0 18.0 17.9 17.9 17.7 17.5 17.2 17.2 17.1 17.0 16.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 116.0 116.7 117.4 118.1 118.9 120.6 122.3 124.2 126.2 128.2 130.0 131.9 133.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 7 8 8 9 10 10 9 9 8 7 6 7 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 8 11 14 17 19 13 14 21 5 10 16 15 8 8 10 10 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 532 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 1. 6. 12. 19. 25. 30. 33. 35. 36. 37. 38. 40. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 3. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -12. -13. -13. -12. -10. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -1. 2. 6. 10. 12. 12. 11. 10. 11. 12. 15. 19. 24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 18.0 116.0 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912020 INVEST 09/11/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.78 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.2 19.6 to 1.4 0.68 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.4 -33.0 to 160.6 0.32 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.53 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.11 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 125.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.76 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.47 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 2.0% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912020 INVEST 09/11/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##