* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902020 09/05/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 36 37 39 44 48 51 54 55 56 58 59 60 62 64 67 V (KT) LAND 35 35 36 37 39 44 48 51 54 55 56 58 59 60 62 64 67 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 35 35 35 36 38 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 23 22 19 17 12 8 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 -2 -2 0 -3 -2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 65 70 69 71 70 55 345 219 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.5 29.5 28.8 28.7 28.6 27.4 28.0 27.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 162 163 155 153 151 138 143 140 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.2 -52.5 -52.7 -52.5 -52.5 -52.4 -52.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 7 7 8 7 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 79 78 79 80 78 76 67 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 53 39 28 22 26 37 41 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 85 66 39 3 15 31 16 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -9 -7 -2 -6 -5 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 192 187 226 233 292 368 274 280 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 101.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 17 18 16 13 12 10 7 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 25 25 19 17 12 2 8 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 494 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 10. 15. 19. 22. 24. 26. 27. 29. 30. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 13. 16. 19. 20. 21. 23. 24. 25. 27. 29. 32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 15.8 101.9 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902020 INVEST 09/05/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.75 5.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.8 19.6 to 1.4 0.04 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.6 -33.0 to 160.6 0.39 2.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.35 1.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.48 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.16 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 50.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.85 -4.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.85 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 15.3% 13.2% 9.3% 6.9% 13.9% 16.0% 10.9% Logistic: 0.2% 1.8% 0.6% 0.3% 0.2% 1.0% 1.1% 1.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 5.7% 4.6% 3.2% 2.4% 4.9% 5.7% 4.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902020 INVEST 09/05/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##