* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWENTYONE EP212020 11/18/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 30 28 25 22 20 20 20 21 23 25 27 29 30 30 V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 30 28 25 22 20 20 20 21 23 25 27 29 30 30 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 29 28 27 23 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 3 6 8 10 15 17 14 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 4 5 5 4 4 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 247 260 258 259 266 277 279 283 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.1 27.8 27.3 27.0 26.6 26.2 25.4 25.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 145 142 137 134 130 126 117 117 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.8 -53.8 -53.8 -53.9 -54.2 -54.6 -54.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 55 54 55 53 46 44 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 9 8 8 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -29 -43 -38 -28 -30 -29 -41 -46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 61 33 -4 -7 -28 -90 -29 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 1 3 5 7 4 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 949 980 1022 1086 1132 1236 1389 1583 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.6 16.0 16.3 16.5 16.7 17.1 17.4 17.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 114.7 115.8 116.8 117.9 118.9 120.9 123.1 125.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 10 10 10 10 10 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 18 10 5 3 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 580 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 14. 17. 20. 22. 23. 23. 23. 22. 23. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. -9. -8. -7. -6. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -2. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -0. -2. -5. -8. -10. -10. -10. -9. -7. -5. -3. -1. -0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.6 114.7 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP212020 TWENTYONE 11/18/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.62 5.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.6 19.6 to 1.4 0.61 4.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.0 -33.0 to 160.6 0.23 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.78 3.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.05 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 190.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.69 -4.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 21.2 56.6 to 0.0 0.63 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.59 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.0% 21.3% 17.4% 11.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 6.1% 9.9% 6.1% 3.7% 0.5% 0.7% 0.0% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.0% 10.4% 7.8% 5.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212020 TWENTYONE 11/18/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##