* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWENTYONE EP212020 11/17/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 33 34 35 33 31 29 26 23 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 32 33 34 35 33 31 29 26 23 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 35 35 33 29 24 19 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 1 3 5 9 18 19 20 16 26 30 41 41 44 44 48 41 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 1 1 2 7 5 6 8 5 8 3 8 6 6 2 6 SHEAR DIR 353 2 253 267 253 267 278 268 261 247 246 247 242 231 224 244 277 SST (C) 28.2 28.1 28.1 27.7 27.2 26.4 26.3 26.0 24.3 23.9 23.6 23.6 23.7 23.8 24.5 24.8 25.0 POT. INT. (KT) 147 146 145 141 136 127 126 123 106 101 96 94 96 99 106 108 109 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.5 -53.6 -53.8 -53.8 -54.0 -54.3 -54.8 -54.9 -54.6 -54.6 -54.9 -55.1 -55.1 -55.2 -54.9 -55.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 4 3 3 2 1 0 0 1 2 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 54 54 55 54 53 49 45 43 41 41 37 35 31 27 20 17 17 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 7 7 8 6 5 4 4 4 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -35 -29 -27 -43 -38 -19 -21 -33 -38 -23 -71 -69 -60 -51 -29 -13 1 200 MB DIV 30 37 38 27 -5 -25 -73 -32 -8 -4 -6 0 -2 -2 -18 -7 -22 700-850 TADV 3 2 2 2 5 14 11 9 15 19 12 -7 -16 -21 -5 -6 0 LAND (KM) 926 929 951 961 991 1028 1059 1132 1210 1269 1269 1253 1245 1281 1374 1481 1542 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.4 15.7 16.2 16.6 17.5 18.4 19.1 19.9 20.8 21.8 22.2 21.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 112.8 113.9 114.9 115.8 116.7 118.4 119.9 121.4 123.2 124.9 125.7 125.8 125.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 10 10 9 8 9 10 8 4 1 3 6 6 4 2 HEAT CONTENT 13 15 18 8 4 1 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 600 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 10. 15. 18. 19. 20. 19. 17. 15. 13. 12. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. -0. -4. -8. -13. -18. -21. -25. -31. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -6. -8. -8. -7. -7. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 5. 3. 1. -1. -4. -7. -10. -16. -22. -28. -33. -42. -48. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.0 112.8 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP212020 TWENTYONE 11/17/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.67 6.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.6 19.6 to 1.4 0.82 7.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.4 -33.0 to 160.6 0.30 2.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.56 3.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.09 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 186.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.70 -4.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 11.5 56.6 to 0.0 0.80 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.56 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.6% 24.2% 23.0% 15.9% 0.0% 15.6% 12.7% 0.0% Logistic: 12.1% 19.8% 16.5% 10.3% 2.3% 3.1% 0.4% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.4% 1.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 8.7% 15.1% 13.2% 8.8% 0.8% 6.2% 4.4% 0.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212020 TWENTYONE 11/17/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##