* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ODALYS EP202020 11/05/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 31 27 22 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 31 27 22 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 30 25 21 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 31 33 35 34 38 41 38 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 8 6 7 5 5 12 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 234 225 230 230 227 221 227 237 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.9 26.1 26.1 26.2 26.3 26.2 26.2 26.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 121 123 123 124 125 123 123 126 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.9 -53.0 -53.3 -53.5 -53.7 -53.9 -53.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.3 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 47 46 44 41 38 36 33 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 14 12 10 9 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -25 -12 -8 -15 -3 23 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 0 -21 -14 -8 -24 2 11 -13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 18 11 7 1 2 0 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1341 1388 1433 1493 1553 1676 1783 1890 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.4 18.4 18.4 18.2 17.9 17.1 16.5 15.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 123.3 124.0 124.6 125.2 125.7 126.5 127.3 128.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 709 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 2.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 11. 13. 15. 17. 17. 16. 15. 15. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -0. -1. -4. -10. -19. -27. -34. -39. -42. -44. -44. -45. -48. -49. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -3. -3. -4. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -9. -13. -14. -14. -14. -14. -13. -11. -10. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -8. -9. -11. -12. -15. -15. -15. -14. -12. -12. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -13. -17. -25. -39. -51. -60. -65. -70. -73. -73. -74. -73. -74. -76. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 18.4 123.3 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP202020 ODALYS 11/05/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.44 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 34.2 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -13.4 -33.0 to 160.6 0.10 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.35 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 2.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.99 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 266.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.61 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 78.6 56.6 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.41 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202020 ODALYS 11/05/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##