* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORBERT EP192020 10/13/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 30 30 32 33 34 30 24 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 30 30 32 33 34 30 24 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 31 31 30 27 25 21 18 18 24 26 26 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 2 2 7 7 9 22 21 25 24 29 32 35 45 60 66 71 86 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 2 2 2 1 -3 0 3 3 -5 -2 -5 -4 -5 0 -10 SHEAR DIR 130 120 121 180 205 194 201 214 213 217 237 265 272 263 268 251 233 SST (C) 29.4 29.2 28.9 28.5 27.8 26.5 24.3 22.0 22.5 21.9 19.9 29.2 28.3 26.6 25.0 25.0 22.3 POT. INT. (KT) 158 157 155 151 144 130 106 81 87 80 62 161 153 134 118 120 93 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.0 -52.8 -53.0 -53.0 -53.0 -53.5 -53.5 -53.9 -54.3 -55.1 -56.4 -56.6 -57.0 -57.4 -57.5 -58.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 8 8 6 7 4 6 0 3 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 59 55 52 50 51 47 39 33 30 30 30 28 28 30 39 59 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 9 8 7 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 20 36 36 6 -8 -33 -16 -25 -30 4 14 -8 66 -2 -50 -45 21 200 MB DIV 13 19 19 35 24 17 7 23 -1 11 -4 -4 -33 10 17 34 124 700-850 TADV 3 10 9 13 14 7 1 6 9 0 -12 19 12 -62 -18 6 47 LAND (KM) 535 491 421 348 312 172 31 70 66 61 -106 -289 -675 -510 -280 -377 -534 LAT (DEG N) 18.1 18.6 19.5 20.7 22.0 24.9 27.1 28.8 30.3 32.0 33.3 33.6 32.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 110.4 111.1 111.8 112.4 113.1 114.0 114.6 115.4 116.7 117.5 116.2 112.1 106.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 10 12 14 15 13 10 8 10 7 13 22 27 23 24 31 36 HEAT CONTENT 18 17 15 11 6 1 0 0 0 0 0 4 12 1 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 595 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 2. 6. 11. 14. 16. 17. 16. 18. 18. 18. 18. 17. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 1. -5. -12. -19. -24. -29. -37. -47. -61. -74. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 4. -0. -6. -13. -16. -23. -32. -45. -62. -76. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 18.1 110.4 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP192020 NORBERT 10/13/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.76 5.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.6 19.6 to 1.4 0.77 5.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.0 -33.0 to 160.6 0.28 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.41 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.10 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 168.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.72 -3.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.2 56.6 to 0.0 0.93 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.49 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.5% 24.2% 16.7% 14.6% 0.0% 15.1% 12.3% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 1.5% 1.7% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.7% 8.6% 6.1% 5.1% 0.0% 5.1% 4.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192020 NORBERT 10/13/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##