* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORBERT EP192020 10/12/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 34 36 39 43 46 47 43 35 29 25 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 33 34 36 39 43 46 47 43 35 29 25 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 36 37 38 37 34 29 23 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 9 9 8 11 11 12 20 30 32 27 24 17 12 7 13 20 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 0 0 -2 -4 0 5 0 -1 1 1 2 0 0 0 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 150 175 197 211 207 237 216 211 198 198 206 202 205 317 333 327 293 SST (C) 29.8 30.1 30.3 30.2 29.9 29.0 27.8 25.7 23.6 22.0 21.4 21.3 20.8 21.1 21.0 20.9 20.5 POT. INT. (KT) 162 165 166 166 163 155 144 122 99 82 76 75 69 72 70 69 66 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.7 -52.9 -52.9 -52.7 -52.7 -52.8 -53.0 -53.1 -53.3 -53.2 -53.0 -53.0 -53.4 -53.8 -54.2 -54.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 7 8 5 6 3 4 2 2 0 1 0 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 62 60 59 57 57 56 55 54 44 34 32 29 26 25 23 22 25 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 6 5 5 6 6 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 18 24 27 25 36 5 -8 -30 -14 0 25 24 31 30 25 0 -43 200 MB DIV 51 29 10 17 11 9 22 11 5 -14 12 -20 0 -14 3 16 22 700-850 TADV 0 1 2 4 3 6 17 13 13 1 2 -6 -8 -13 -9 -8 -6 LAND (KM) 404 430 456 456 403 322 263 293 281 419 523 536 580 641 707 680 538 LAT (DEG N) 17.7 18.1 18.4 18.8 19.3 20.6 22.7 24.8 26.6 28.0 29.4 30.6 31.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 108.4 109.0 109.5 110.0 110.5 111.9 113.5 115.6 117.5 119.5 121.5 123.5 125.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 7 8 11 14 14 11 11 11 10 9 8 7 7 10 HEAT CONTENT 23 25 26 26 26 16 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 500 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 13.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 11. 17. 21. 22. 23. 21. 18. 15. 11. 8. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 0. -6. -12. -18. -19. -19. -17. -18. -21. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -4. -6. -8. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 4. 6. 9. 13. 16. 17. 13. 5. -1. -5. -10. -15. -23. -33. -40. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 17.7 108.4 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP192020 NORBERT 10/12/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.86 8.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.8 19.6 to 1.4 0.54 4.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.6 -33.0 to 160.6 0.29 2.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.64 3.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.22 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 147.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.74 -5.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.62 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 2.1 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.0% 26.3% 24.1% 16.9% 0.0% 21.2% 19.0% 9.7% Logistic: 4.3% 8.1% 5.3% 1.9% 1.5% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.2% 2.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.8% 12.3% 9.9% 6.3% 0.5% 7.4% 6.4% 3.3% DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192020 NORBERT 10/12/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##