* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORBERT EP192020 10/11/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 34 35 35 37 39 40 36 30 25 22 19 16 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 33 34 35 35 37 39 40 36 30 25 22 19 16 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 33 36 37 38 37 33 28 23 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 10 13 12 13 14 20 27 28 29 24 23 18 13 8 17 23 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 -2 -1 1 2 2 5 2 -1 1 -3 -3 -2 0 0 0 1 SHEAR DIR 178 184 205 226 226 232 227 217 202 199 211 209 207 279 327 316 305 SST (C) 29.6 30.0 30.3 30.4 30.1 29.3 28.3 26.0 23.4 22.9 22.2 21.8 21.9 21.5 21.1 21.0 20.5 POT. INT. (KT) 160 164 167 168 165 158 149 125 97 92 84 79 80 77 73 72 68 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.5 -52.8 -53.0 -52.9 -52.6 -52.8 -53.0 -53.3 -53.4 -53.7 -53.4 -53.6 -53.8 -54.4 -54.5 -55.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 6 7 6 5 3 2 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 61 61 59 59 57 55 55 55 51 41 34 31 29 27 30 32 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 20 28 29 30 31 27 -2 -28 -22 -31 -9 2 9 12 -1 -26 -50 200 MB DIV 59 58 31 17 11 -2 5 4 4 0 -5 -16 -21 -7 -10 0 17 700-850 TADV 4 2 2 4 9 15 18 5 11 7 13 2 3 -5 -1 -10 -17 LAND (KM) 382 387 405 431 400 289 259 288 333 489 634 719 715 738 716 671 548 LAT (DEG N) 17.5 18.1 18.5 18.9 19.3 20.6 22.4 24.3 25.9 27.1 28.1 28.9 29.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 108.0 108.5 109.0 109.5 110.0 111.3 112.8 115.1 117.6 119.9 122.1 123.9 125.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 6 6 7 10 13 15 13 11 10 9 9 10 12 13 14 HEAT CONTENT 22 28 29 29 28 23 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 10 CX,CY: -5/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 424 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 11. 17. 21. 23. 24. 23. 20. 18. 14. 11. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. -2. -9. -15. -19. -21. -20. -19. -19. -23. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 4. 5. 5. 7. 9. 10. 6. -0. -5. -8. -11. -14. -20. -29. -35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 17.5 108.0 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP192020 NORBERT 10/11/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.87 8.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 5.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.8 19.6 to 1.4 0.38 3.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.2 -33.0 to 160.6 0.35 3.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.50 2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.24 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 139.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.75 -5.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.83 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.6% 24.6% 23.1% 16.4% 0.0% 19.2% 17.2% 0.0% Logistic: 5.4% 8.3% 6.2% 2.1% 1.2% 0.8% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.6% 3.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.2% 12.0% 9.8% 6.2% 0.4% 6.7% 5.8% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192020 NORBERT 10/11/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##