* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORBERT EP192020 10/09/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 25 25 28 32 39 45 48 51 53 55 56 56 56 57 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 25 25 28 32 39 45 48 51 53 55 56 56 56 57 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 24 24 23 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 7 10 13 14 13 12 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 4 2 2 1 -2 -2 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 106 94 95 101 105 114 125 112 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 149 149 148 148 147 146 147 148 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.6 -52.4 -52.7 -53.0 -53.1 -53.7 -53.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 65 67 67 68 71 72 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 7 6 5 4 3 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 16 5 -2 0 -5 -4 8 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 6 20 25 30 44 72 77 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -2 -4 -2 -2 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 633 628 622 612 604 596 566 547 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.4 13.6 13.9 14.2 14.5 14.8 15.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 106.0 106.3 106.5 106.8 107.1 107.4 107.4 107.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 3 4 3 2 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 19 18 17 15 15 14 15 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 635 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 1. 6. 12. 18. 24. 28. 31. 33. 35. 37. 38. 40. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. -0. -0. -0. 3. 7. 14. 20. 23. 26. 28. 30. 31. 31. 31. 32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.2 106.0 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP192020 NORBERT 10/09/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.76 3.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.3 19.6 to 1.4 0.51 2.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.0 -33.0 to 160.6 0.30 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.32 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.14 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 75.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.82 -3.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.21 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 16.2% 9.6% 0.0% 0.0% 13.5% 14.2% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 4.1% 1.5% 0.6% 0.1% 0.8% 2.4% 5.5% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 6.9% 3.7% 0.2% 0.0% 4.8% 5.5% 1.8% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192020 NORBERT 10/09/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##