* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORBERT EP192020 10/09/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 23 23 23 24 26 29 35 38 42 44 47 48 50 53 55 V (KT) LAND 25 24 23 23 23 24 26 29 35 38 42 44 47 48 50 53 55 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 23 23 21 21 20 21 22 24 26 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 8 9 13 15 16 14 10 7 6 4 7 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 6 3 0 1 -1 0 -1 -5 -4 -6 -2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 126 106 89 92 99 106 133 139 125 111 94 29 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.1 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 151 150 149 150 149 149 148 149 149 148 148 148 147 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.7 -52.7 -52.6 -52.9 -53.2 -53.5 -53.6 -53.5 -53.4 -53.4 -53.4 -53.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 64 64 66 69 69 72 69 68 65 65 64 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 7 7 6 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 21 21 6 0 3 -6 3 20 18 30 36 28 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 11 12 20 26 21 44 73 79 46 32 42 35 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -3 -2 -3 -3 0 1 1 1 0 3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 637 641 645 634 624 591 581 552 553 571 619 654 675 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.1 13.2 13.3 13.6 13.9 14.5 14.7 15.0 15.1 15.1 15.0 15.0 15.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 105.9 106.2 106.4 106.7 107.0 107.3 107.5 107.5 107.7 108.0 108.6 109.1 109.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 1 3 3 4 4 2 2 1 1 2 2 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 22 20 20 18 17 16 16 17 16 15 14 13 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 1 CX,CY: 1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 665 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 1. 6. 12. 18. 24. 28. 31. 33. 35. 37. 39. 40. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -11. -11. -10. -9. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 4. 10. 13. 17. 19. 22. 23. 25. 28. 30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.1 105.9 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP192020 NORBERT 10/09/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.77 5.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.8 19.6 to 1.4 0.48 3.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.0 -33.0 to 160.6 0.26 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.51 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.16 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 84.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.81 -4.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.18 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 15.3% 15.1% 0.0% 0.0% 13.9% 14.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 1.7% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 1.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 5.7% 5.2% 0.1% 0.0% 4.8% 4.7% 0.3% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192020 NORBERT 10/09/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##