* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORBERT EP192020 10/09/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 24 24 24 27 31 35 41 46 50 54 58 58 58 59 61 V (KT) LAND 25 25 24 24 24 27 31 35 41 46 50 54 58 58 58 59 61 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 24 24 23 22 22 22 23 26 29 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 9 5 7 10 13 16 15 11 11 15 10 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 6 9 5 2 0 -4 -5 -7 -6 -7 -2 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 141 136 107 70 88 90 107 124 114 102 103 71 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 149 149 150 150 149 148 148 148 148 147 149 150 151 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.4 -52.7 -52.7 -52.6 -53.1 -53.1 -53.7 -53.2 -53.4 -53.1 -53.6 -53.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 63 66 65 67 69 71 71 70 69 66 65 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 8 8 6 5 4 5 6 7 8 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 29 25 23 13 5 0 0 9 12 28 33 25 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 9 19 17 20 27 47 63 78 55 21 82 44 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -2 -4 -2 -3 -2 0 0 2 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 652 656 659 652 645 625 581 562 572 568 574 624 739 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.1 13.1 13.4 13.6 14.2 14.7 14.9 14.9 15.0 15.0 15.1 15.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 106.0 106.2 106.3 106.6 106.9 107.4 107.5 107.5 107.7 107.8 107.9 108.8 110.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 0 2 2 4 4 3 1 1 1 0 2 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 22 21 20 19 18 16 16 17 16 16 15 14 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):135/ 1 CX,CY: 1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 612 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 1. 6. 12. 18. 24. 28. 31. 33. 35. 37. 39. 40. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 2. 1. 0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -4. -2. -2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -1. -1. 2. 6. 10. 16. 21. 25. 29. 33. 33. 33. 34. 36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.0 106.0 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP192020 NORBERT 10/09/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.77 4.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.3 19.6 to 1.4 0.62 3.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.4 -33.0 to 160.6 0.27 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.33 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.17 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 89.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.81 -3.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.8 2.2 to -1.9 0.09 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 17.7% 11.3% 0.0% 0.0% 14.5% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.6% 14.3% 6.1% 2.8% 0.3% 2.0% 0.6% 2.6% Bayesian: 0.1% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.9% 11.0% 5.8% 0.9% 0.1% 5.5% 0.2% 0.9% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192020 NORBERT 10/09/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##