* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORBERT EP192020 10/08/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 25 26 28 29 31 38 41 46 50 55 55 56 58 60 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 25 26 28 29 31 38 41 46 50 55 55 56 58 60 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 24 24 23 22 21 21 22 24 26 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 12 10 8 10 16 16 13 9 7 4 7 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 5 4 1 1 -1 -1 -4 -3 -3 -6 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 132 131 117 103 97 108 113 140 145 158 52 111 78 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 150 149 149 148 147 148 149 149 148 147 147 149 151 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.5 -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -52.9 -53.2 -53.5 -53.5 -53.3 -53.3 -53.2 -53.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.3 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 62 64 64 63 68 66 66 64 65 63 64 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 8 8 8 7 5 3 5 5 6 6 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 23 28 26 22 15 3 2 14 13 14 15 13 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 8 7 10 -1 9 21 51 68 50 44 20 25 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 -1 -3 -4 -2 1 0 1 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 648 666 684 683 683 668 627 568 560 583 607 657 703 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.1 13.0 12.9 13.1 13.2 13.7 14.5 15.2 15.7 15.8 15.8 15.8 16.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 106.1 106.3 106.4 106.7 106.9 107.4 108.0 108.1 108.6 109.0 109.3 109.9 110.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 3 3 2 2 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 21 21 21 19 19 17 15 15 13 13 13 13 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):105/ 3 CX,CY: 3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 684 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 1. 6. 12. 18. 24. 28. 31. 33. 35. 37. 39. 40. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -8. -6. -6. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 13. 16. 21. 25. 30. 30. 31. 33. 35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.1 106.1 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP192020 NORBERT 10/08/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.76 5.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.6 19.6 to 1.4 0.50 3.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.6 -33.0 to 160.6 0.20 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.52 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.17 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 97.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.80 -4.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.30 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 14.9% 14.6% 0.0% 0.0% 13.5% 13.5% 0.0% Logistic: 1.9% 12.0% 4.5% 2.3% 0.5% 1.6% 0.6% 2.6% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 9.5% 6.4% 0.8% 0.2% 5.0% 4.7% 0.9% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192020 NORBERT 10/08/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##