* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORBERT EP192020 10/08/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 23 22 22 25 27 29 33 36 37 39 41 43 45 47 50 V (KT) LAND 25 24 23 22 22 25 27 29 33 36 37 39 41 43 45 47 50 V (KT) LGEM 25 23 22 21 21 19 18 17 17 17 17 17 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 14 11 9 6 12 13 14 12 13 9 7 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 0 4 4 0 0 -1 -1 -7 0 -3 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 137 136 134 129 112 109 117 128 161 172 213 192 221 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.9 29.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 149 149 149 149 148 147 148 149 148 147 148 151 154 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.6 -52.4 -52.5 -52.7 -52.6 -53.2 -53.1 -53.8 -53.3 -53.5 -53.2 -53.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 6 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 59 62 63 63 65 66 65 62 64 62 63 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 10 9 8 8 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 6 21 24 30 24 6 -3 3 13 8 13 23 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -16 18 22 12 0 7 23 74 61 75 30 26 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 1 1 0 -1 -2 -2 -1 2 2 4 5 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 644 656 669 670 672 688 680 605 576 560 562 617 698 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.1 13.0 13.1 13.2 13.4 13.9 15.0 15.6 16.0 16.2 16.4 16.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 106.2 106.3 106.3 106.5 106.7 107.3 107.9 108.4 108.7 108.9 109.1 109.9 111.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 1 1 1 2 3 4 5 4 3 2 3 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 20 20 21 20 19 18 16 14 13 13 13 13 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):110/ 3 CX,CY: 3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 638 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 1. 6. 12. 18. 24. 28. 31. 33. 35. 37. 39. 40. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -2. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -3. -0. 2. 4. 8. 11. 12. 14. 16. 18. 20. 22. 25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.2 106.2 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP192020 NORBERT 10/08/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.76 3.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.4 19.6 to 1.4 0.51 2.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.2 -33.0 to 160.6 0.21 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.31 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.17 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 103.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.79 -2.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -1.9 0.37 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 0.8 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 13.7% 7.3% 0.0% 0.0% 11.7% 12.1% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 1.5% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 1.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 5.2% 2.6% 0.1% 0.0% 4.0% 4.1% 0.3% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192020 NORBERT 10/08/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##