* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORBERT EP192020 10/08/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 22 21 21 20 22 25 28 32 34 38 39 43 46 47 50 53 V (KT) LAND 25 22 21 21 20 22 25 28 32 34 38 39 43 46 47 50 53 V (KT) LGEM 25 22 20 19 18 16 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 11 12 13 13 10 11 7 7 7 12 6 1 5 7 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -2 -1 3 1 0 -2 0 -1 -6 -4 -1 -5 -3 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 125 130 125 133 136 107 109 97 158 162 176 243 206 268 233 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.5 28.5 28.7 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.8 28.7 28.7 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 150 149 149 149 148 147 147 150 151 152 151 151 150 149 148 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.7 -52.8 -52.6 -52.6 -52.8 -53.0 -53.3 -53.5 -53.6 -53.5 -53.6 -53.3 -53.4 -53.3 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 5 6 6 7 6 6 6 6 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 59 61 62 62 64 67 65 62 57 58 55 57 56 56 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 9 10 9 8 7 5 4 4 5 5 7 8 8 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -3 8 17 21 26 13 1 -3 15 13 6 11 34 21 27 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -23 -14 -2 0 -6 -1 19 41 79 72 40 26 22 24 15 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 1 1 1 1 -3 -4 -7 -4 1 1 0 -1 1 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 655 665 676 691 707 743 745 706 669 638 632 663 677 677 657 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.2 13.1 13.1 13.0 13.0 13.5 14.3 15.4 16.2 16.7 16.9 17.0 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 106.4 106.5 106.6 106.8 107.0 107.6 108.4 109.0 109.7 110.0 110.3 110.8 111.6 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 1 1 2 2 2 4 5 6 5 4 2 3 4 4 3 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 20 20 20 20 20 20 19 16 14 14 14 14 14 13 13 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):110/ 3 CX,CY: 3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 651 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 1. 6. 12. 18. 24. 28. 31. 33. 36. 37. 39. 41. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -4. -6. -7. -5. -4. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -8. -10. -10. -10. -9. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -4. -4. -5. -3. 0. 3. 7. 9. 13. 14. 18. 21. 22. 25. 28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.2 106.4 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP192020 NORBERT 10/08/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.77 1.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 0.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.3 19.6 to 1.4 0.40 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : -9.0 -33.0 to 160.6 0.12 0.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.34 0.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.17 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 110.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.78 -1.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.47 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.5 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 10.2% 3.6% 0.0% 0.0% 9.3% 10.6% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 3.7% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 3.1% 3.6% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192020 NORBERT 10/08/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##