* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORBERT EP192020 10/08/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 27 28 28 29 31 33 37 39 41 40 40 39 42 44 47 V (KT) LAND 30 28 27 28 28 29 31 33 37 39 41 40 40 39 42 44 47 V (KT) LGEM 30 28 27 26 25 24 22 21 21 22 24 24 24 24 24 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 11 12 13 13 6 11 5 8 11 11 11 11 13 17 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -2 -2 0 5 0 2 -3 -2 -5 -4 -4 0 -2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 123 127 137 132 144 122 108 83 115 167 176 199 209 224 209 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.8 29.1 29.1 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 148 147 147 147 147 146 147 148 150 151 152 151 151 154 154 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -52.4 -52.8 -52.6 -53.0 -53.0 -53.6 -53.3 -53.6 -53.4 -53.3 -53.3 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 55 58 60 62 63 64 64 64 60 58 56 53 52 50 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 8 9 10 9 8 6 5 6 6 6 6 5 6 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -7 -8 6 22 25 24 9 10 9 26 23 19 38 52 39 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -18 -18 -10 4 -4 1 12 35 67 80 64 8 15 21 20 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 2 2 0 -2 -4 -4 0 0 -1 1 1 10 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 673 684 694 708 722 774 769 724 714 701 689 621 608 548 509 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.3 13.2 13.2 13.1 12.8 13.2 14.1 14.9 15.9 16.8 17.6 18.1 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 106.9 107.0 107.1 107.2 107.4 107.8 108.3 109.0 109.8 110.5 111.2 111.9 112.8 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 1 1 1 2 2 2 5 5 6 6 5 5 6 7 7 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 19 19 19 19 20 21 19 16 14 13 14 14 14 15 13 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):170/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 569 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 21. 25. 27. 30. 32. 33. 35. 37. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 1. -0. -1. -4. -6. -5. -4. -5. -4. -5. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -11. -12. -11. -9. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 1. 3. 7. 9. 11. 10. 10. 9. 12. 14. 17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.3 106.9 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP192020 NORBERT 10/08/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.70 5.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.3 19.6 to 1.4 0.45 3.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -9.2 -33.0 to 160.6 0.12 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.65 2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.16 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 143.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.74 -4.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.3 56.6 to 0.0 0.87 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.61 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.6% 15.5% 13.4% 9.0% 0.0% 12.9% 14.2% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 5.5% 4.6% 3.0% 0.0% 4.4% 4.8% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192020 NORBERT 10/08/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##