* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORBERT EP192020 10/07/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 33 33 34 35 37 39 42 42 43 43 43 43 45 47 51 V (KT) LAND 35 34 33 33 34 35 37 39 42 42 43 43 43 43 45 47 51 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 35 34 34 33 31 30 29 29 29 30 30 30 30 30 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 0 4 10 11 11 12 11 9 8 13 8 12 12 9 11 8 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 2 -2 -1 0 2 0 0 -2 -5 -4 -4 -1 0 0 -4 -1 SHEAR DIR 123 110 127 139 133 140 121 128 105 147 198 193 224 221 203 156 76 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 147 146 146 147 146 146 146 148 150 149 149 147 147 147 146 144 143 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -52.9 -52.5 -52.6 -52.8 -52.7 -52.8 -52.8 -53.2 -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 -53.7 -53.4 -53.4 -53.3 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 6 6 700-500 MB RH 55 54 53 58 60 61 60 63 61 60 56 57 56 56 55 56 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 8 8 9 9 8 8 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -4 -15 -13 4 20 30 22 23 25 38 36 34 42 61 69 66 12 200 MB DIV -1 -27 -17 -14 0 1 15 48 54 92 65 47 27 24 34 41 34 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 2 2 1 -1 -2 -5 0 3 1 6 3 13 8 3 LAND (KM) 667 671 676 687 697 732 764 745 722 737 757 731 702 696 725 747 752 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.5 13.4 13.4 13.3 13.2 13.2 13.8 14.7 15.5 16.1 16.6 17.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 107.1 107.1 107.1 107.2 107.3 107.7 108.2 108.9 109.7 110.6 111.3 112.0 112.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 1 0 1 1 2 2 3 5 6 5 4 3 3 5 4 3 1 HEAT CONTENT 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 17 14 13 13 13 12 11 10 9 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):180/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 561 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 15. 19. 22. 24. 26. 27. 28. 29. 30. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -9. -7. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 4. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 10. 12. 16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 13.5 107.1 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP192020 NORBERT 10/07/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.65 4.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.5 19.6 to 1.4 0.67 3.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : -11.8 -33.0 to 160.6 0.11 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.35 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.44 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.16 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 184.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.70 -3.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.4 56.6 to 0.0 0.98 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.54 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.8% 20.7% 13.7% 12.4% 9.8% 15.5% 15.3% 10.7% Logistic: 1.5% 3.9% 1.6% 0.8% 0.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.4% 8.3% 5.1% 4.4% 3.3% 5.3% 5.1% 3.7% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192020 NORBERT 10/07/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##