* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORBERT EP192020 10/07/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 35 35 36 39 41 44 46 47 48 51 51 53 55 56 57 V (KT) LAND 35 34 35 35 36 39 41 44 46 47 48 51 51 53 55 56 57 V (KT) LGEM 35 33 32 32 32 31 30 29 29 30 31 33 35 37 40 41 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 4 5 8 9 14 6 8 4 11 13 11 8 6 3 4 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 0 -1 0 -1 1 -1 1 -4 -5 -6 -5 -5 -1 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 235 228 163 147 159 157 165 142 112 130 156 142 167 158 219 142 218 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.5 28.4 28.2 28.0 27.5 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 149 147 148 149 149 150 149 150 150 149 149 147 146 145 143 138 141 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.3 -52.9 -52.7 -52.8 -52.4 -52.7 -52.4 -53.1 -53.2 -53.7 -53.5 -53.7 -53.4 -53.5 -53.3 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.3 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 6 6 700-500 MB RH 56 54 54 53 56 56 57 58 59 63 61 60 57 54 54 52 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 9 8 8 10 8 8 7 6 7 7 6 7 8 7 5 850 MB ENV VOR -10 0 -4 1 16 36 34 33 38 36 31 30 27 34 33 43 17 200 MB DIV -4 -2 -6 -3 -11 0 -5 13 43 56 75 48 24 10 15 12 0 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 0 2 1 0 -2 -5 -4 1 0 1 4 1 8 11 LAND (KM) 604 604 604 615 625 630 657 680 691 722 764 755 718 766 880 967 998 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.2 14.2 14.2 14.2 14.3 14.3 14.6 15.2 15.6 16.0 16.4 17.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 107.1 107.1 107.1 107.2 107.4 107.7 108.2 109.0 109.8 110.5 111.3 112.1 112.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 1 0 0 1 2 2 3 4 5 4 4 5 4 6 6 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 18 18 18 18 18 17 17 16 14 13 13 12 11 10 9 5 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 569 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 15. 19. 22. 24. 26. 28. 29. 30. 30. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -2. -3. -2. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -0. 0. 1. 4. 6. 9. 11. 12. 13. 16. 16. 18. 20. 21. 22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 14.2 107.1 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP192020 NORBERT 10/07/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.67 5.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 2.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.7 19.6 to 1.4 0.71 5.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.2 -33.0 to 160.6 0.14 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.35 2.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.67 3.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.15 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 204.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.68 -4.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.43 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.6% 20.8% 20.1% 13.7% 11.1% 17.2% 16.8% 0.0% Logistic: 6.5% 17.1% 9.5% 5.2% 1.7% 1.5% 0.3% 0.8% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 5.4% 12.9% 9.9% 6.3% 4.3% 6.3% 5.7% 0.3% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192020 NORBERT 10/07/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##