* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORBERT EP192020 10/07/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 47 48 48 48 49 49 48 50 49 49 49 49 51 54 57 V (KT) LAND 45 46 47 48 48 48 49 49 48 50 49 49 49 49 51 54 57 V (KT) LGEM 45 46 47 47 46 45 44 44 42 41 41 41 41 41 41 42 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 9 8 6 10 18 19 12 10 5 13 12 12 6 1 3 1 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 1 1 0 -4 -3 1 -1 3 0 0 -5 -4 -4 2 6 SHEAR DIR 232 218 208 151 131 152 148 160 150 91 125 139 145 185 173 295 184 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.1 28.8 28.5 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.0 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 153 152 150 151 150 151 153 155 156 154 151 147 145 144 144 142 137 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.2 -53.1 -52.9 -52.6 -52.4 -52.5 -52.6 -52.3 -52.8 -53.0 -53.6 -53.4 -53.6 -53.6 -53.9 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 7 8 7 8 7 7 6 6 6 7 7 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 57 56 55 52 54 52 56 55 56 59 58 56 53 52 52 52 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 10 11 10 9 10 10 9 9 7 6 5 5 5 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR -28 -15 -10 1 5 18 37 39 37 24 18 24 23 23 20 10 10 200 MB DIV 15 0 0 17 1 -21 -32 -25 14 30 47 67 12 -25 -26 -10 4 700-850 TADV 1 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 -2 -3 -1 0 2 3 3 7 15 LAND (KM) 565 557 549 553 556 549 570 597 610 669 748 803 789 825 906 965 1009 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 14.6 14.6 14.6 14.6 14.6 14.6 14.7 15.1 15.4 15.7 15.9 16.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 106.9 106.9 106.8 106.9 106.9 106.8 107.1 107.8 108.6 109.7 110.9 111.9 112.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 1 0 0 0 0 2 4 5 5 5 4 4 5 5 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 20 18 16 13 12 11 12 14 10 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 569 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 15. 17. 18. 20. 21. 22. 23. 23. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 6. 9. 12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 14.5 106.9 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP192020 NORBERT 10/07/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.60 5.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.3 19.6 to 1.4 0.62 5.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.6 -33.0 to 160.6 0.20 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 4.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.62 3.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.18 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 260.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.61 -4.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -1.9 0.36 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.6% 25.6% 25.4% 17.8% 14.0% 20.6% 17.3% 9.9% Logistic: 3.1% 7.3% 4.8% 2.6% 1.1% 0.6% 0.3% 0.9% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.5% 11.2% 10.1% 6.8% 5.0% 7.1% 5.9% 3.6% DTOPS: 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192020 NORBERT 10/07/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##