* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORBERT EP192020 10/06/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 44 46 47 51 56 60 60 61 62 63 64 63 62 61 60 V (KT) LAND 40 42 44 46 47 51 56 60 60 61 62 63 64 63 62 61 60 V (KT) LGEM 40 42 43 44 44 45 48 50 53 55 57 59 60 61 60 58 56 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 6 7 6 3 8 11 13 10 11 13 15 9 16 12 12 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 0 3 2 -1 -2 3 3 3 -3 2 0 1 0 1 SHEAR DIR 310 271 231 212 222 121 133 134 138 138 120 126 114 112 116 109 124 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 154 153 152 151 152 152 152 154 154 153 154 155 153 151 152 151 146 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.1 -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 -52.6 -52.4 -52.1 -52.1 -51.9 -52.5 -52.5 -53.2 -52.7 -52.9 -53.0 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 8 7 6 8 7 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 58 58 57 56 56 55 54 56 56 58 60 59 55 53 53 49 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 11 10 10 11 12 13 12 13 13 13 12 11 9 9 7 850 MB ENV VOR -52 -42 -36 -19 -20 -3 19 38 33 29 30 31 27 12 10 9 2 200 MB DIV 12 40 34 24 14 12 0 -18 -35 2 23 83 56 23 14 2 3 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 0 1 1 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 LAND (KM) 584 587 591 587 582 556 548 537 559 577 581 599 640 653 679 766 822 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.1 14.2 14.3 14.3 14.6 14.7 15.0 15.1 15.1 15.2 15.4 15.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 106.5 106.7 106.9 106.9 106.9 106.9 106.9 107.2 107.8 108.1 108.3 108.8 109.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 2 1 0 1 1 1 2 2 1 2 4 4 2 3 6 9 HEAT CONTENT 21 21 20 21 21 21 22 22 20 20 19 18 16 15 14 14 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 657 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 18.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 17. 20. 22. 24. 26. 27. 28. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 2. 4. 3. 3. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 7. 11. 16. 20. 20. 21. 22. 23. 24. 23. 22. 21. 20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 14.0 106.5 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP192020 NORBERT 10/06/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.66 6.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.2 19.6 to 1.4 0.74 6.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.8 -33.0 to 160.6 0.30 2.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 3.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.69 4.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.17 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 214.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.66 -4.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 29.0 56.6 to 0.0 0.49 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.22 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 2.3 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.9% 29.3% 25.7% 17.5% 13.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 12.2% 31.7% 24.0% 14.7% 4.7% 8.4% 1.3% 2.7% Bayesian: 0.6% 7.9% 1.0% 0.3% 0.2% 1.1% 0.8% 0.0% Consensus: 9.2% 23.0% 16.9% 10.8% 6.0% 3.2% 0.7% 0.9% DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192020 NORBERT 10/06/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##