* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORBERT EP192020 10/06/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 46 49 51 54 57 61 61 60 58 59 61 61 61 61 61 V (KT) LAND 40 43 46 49 51 54 57 61 61 60 58 59 61 61 61 61 61 V (KT) LGEM 40 44 46 48 50 50 50 53 56 57 57 57 58 60 62 63 63 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 6 6 5 4 6 9 5 11 12 9 8 6 9 13 5 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 3 1 3 4 0 0 0 -4 3 0 -3 -4 -8 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 315 326 296 244 198 89 123 107 122 141 143 112 139 117 155 187 190 SST (C) 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.6 29.5 29.3 29.0 28.8 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 161 159 158 157 157 157 157 157 159 159 160 157 156 154 152 150 146 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.5 -53.4 -53.2 -53.3 -53.2 -52.7 -52.7 -52.4 -52.5 -52.9 -53.1 -53.3 -53.5 -53.4 -53.5 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 7 7 7 6 6 700-500 MB RH 61 60 58 59 58 55 54 57 60 61 65 63 61 58 58 59 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 10 10 11 9 9 10 10 9 8 7 7 5 4 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR -64 -60 -48 -38 -23 -10 0 13 25 23 25 16 21 17 21 15 16 200 MB DIV 26 14 44 36 17 7 -3 -13 -29 -21 14 28 55 43 44 4 7 700-850 TADV -2 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 -1 -2 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 0 LAND (KM) 600 596 593 604 615 627 618 600 596 601 614 625 630 645 690 748 840 LAT (DEG N) 13.6 13.9 14.1 14.1 14.0 13.8 13.9 14.1 14.3 14.5 14.7 15.0 15.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 106.1 106.5 106.8 106.9 107.0 106.9 106.9 106.9 107.1 107.5 108.1 108.7 109.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 4 2 1 1 0 0 1 2 3 3 3 2 3 3 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 26 25 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 23 21 20 18 15 14 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 7 CX,CY: -2/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 626 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 23.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 14. 18. 21. 23. 25. 28. 30. 31. 32. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 7. 7. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. 1. -0. -0. 1. -0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 11. 14. 18. 21. 21. 20. 18. 19. 21. 21. 21. 21. 21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 13.6 106.1 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP192020 NORBERT 10/06/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.72 7.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 6.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.9 19.6 to 1.4 0.75 7.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.4 -33.0 to 160.6 0.31 3.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 3.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.76 4.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.21 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 197.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.68 -5.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.4 56.6 to 0.0 0.92 2.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.2 to -1.9 0.32 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 40% is 3.2 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 31% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 27% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 18.2% 39.8% 31.9% 21.8% 16.9% 31.1% 26.9% 12.7% Logistic: 23.9% 51.1% 39.5% 28.6% 8.4% 27.2% 8.2% 11.0% Bayesian: 2.3% 30.1% 5.2% 1.9% 1.3% 3.9% 3.2% 0.1% Consensus: 14.8% 40.3% 25.5% 17.4% 8.9% 20.7% 12.8% 7.9% DTOPS: 4.0% 10.0% 6.0% 4.0% 4.0% 3.0% 3.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192020 NORBERT 10/06/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##