* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIE EP182020 10/07/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 27 25 24 23 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 27 25 24 23 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 26 22 19 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 38 41 39 38 40 45 43 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 10 11 4 1 0 0 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 231 230 238 234 231 242 246 262 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.2 24.5 24.6 24.6 24.5 24.5 24.8 25.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 103 106 106 106 105 105 108 111 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.3 -52.9 -53.4 -53.4 -53.7 -53.9 -54.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 37 37 37 32 29 26 24 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 19 18 17 17 16 11 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -4 -6 -15 -14 -9 -8 -11 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 29 15 27 34 47 4 -20 -34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 2 2 3 2 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1975 1927 1880 1842 1805 1716 1626 1556 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.4 22.7 22.9 23.1 23.2 23.3 23.3 23.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 136.0 136.5 137.0 137.4 137.8 138.7 139.6 140.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 734 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 3.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 9. 11. 13. 14. 14. 12. 10. 8. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 0. -7. -18. -32. -43. -52. -56. -58. -59. -61. -67. -70. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. 1. -1. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -8. -13. -15. -15. -15. -14. -13. -12. -11. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -8. -9. -11. -12. -14. -15. -15. -14. -12. -12. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -6. -7. -10. -21. -34. -45. -54. -62. -68. -72. -78. -82. -90. -95. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 22.4 136.0 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP182020 MARIE 10/07/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 75.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.32 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 39.2 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.4 -33.0 to 160.6 0.33 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 3.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.97 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 309.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.56 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 70.8 56.6 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.38 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182020 MARIE 10/07/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##