* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942020 09/28/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 20 21 23 28 33 41 48 52 54 56 57 56 54 50 46 V (KT) LAND 20 20 20 21 23 28 33 41 48 52 54 56 57 56 54 50 46 V (KT) LGEM 20 19 18 17 17 18 19 19 20 20 21 23 25 27 28 26 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 15 12 7 3 3 1 11 9 15 13 8 6 4 17 23 37 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 0 3 5 4 7 -3 1 -4 -7 -2 -2 4 4 6 7 SHEAR DIR 95 99 93 75 50 48 243 173 138 116 91 85 34 277 257 244 249 SST (C) 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.0 29.1 28.9 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.0 26.3 24.7 23.7 22.8 POT. INT. (KT) 156 156 155 154 156 155 151 152 152 152 150 148 144 127 110 99 89 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.1 -52.8 -53.1 -53.3 -52.8 -53.2 -52.5 -52.9 -52.2 -52.8 -52.0 -52.3 -51.7 -52.0 -51.2 -51.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 6 6 5 4 3 3 700-500 MB RH 74 75 76 76 77 77 74 72 68 66 64 61 59 56 51 48 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -10 -2 16 38 47 70 82 97 109 112 110 107 90 58 39 35 48 200 MB DIV 62 75 96 109 101 119 106 96 92 94 65 72 -1 14 -1 12 -5 700-850 TADV 0 1 0 -4 -2 -4 -3 5 -1 4 -1 -1 -2 8 22 23 20 LAND (KM) 522 508 519 573 634 753 919 1033 1275 1455 1568 1616 1584 1521 1535 1615 1653 LAT (DEG N) 13.6 13.9 14.1 14.0 14.1 14.5 15.1 15.6 15.4 15.4 15.6 16.3 17.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 104.5 104.9 105.5 106.3 107.4 109.9 112.9 116.1 119.3 122.0 123.7 124.9 125.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 7 9 11 14 15 15 15 10 8 7 9 10 11 10 8 HEAT CONTENT 22 20 19 19 21 13 15 15 16 16 17 15 10 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 623 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -0. 5. 12. 20. 27. 31. 35. 38. 40. 42. 42. 42. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. 5. 6. 5. 2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 1. 1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. 1. 3. 8. 13. 21. 28. 32. 34. 36. 37. 36. 34. 30. 26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 13.6 104.5 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942020 INVEST 09/28/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.87 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.7 19.6 to 1.4 0.49 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 88.6 -33.0 to 160.6 0.63 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.40 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.17 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 29.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.87 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.42 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 2.5% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1% 5.0% 5.7% 4.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.9% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 1.7% 1.9% 1.4% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942020 INVEST 09/28/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##