* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942020 09/28/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 33 39 45 53 60 62 63 64 64 65 64 64 61 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 33 39 45 53 60 62 63 64 64 65 64 64 61 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 28 30 31 32 34 36 39 41 42 42 42 43 43 41 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 15 18 21 19 9 11 5 2 6 10 11 12 1 6 8 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 0 -3 -3 2 4 2 5 4 0 -3 0 2 10 8 9 SHEAR DIR 86 84 80 89 86 61 55 35 193 228 208 206 143 158 155 249 248 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.7 28.7 29.0 28.7 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.5 28.0 27.4 26.9 25.8 23.8 POT. INT. (KT) 154 155 154 152 150 151 155 153 155 154 153 150 143 136 133 123 102 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.2 -53.4 -53.3 -53.0 -53.5 -52.9 -53.4 -52.7 -53.1 -52.7 -53.1 -52.4 -52.9 -52.2 -52.5 -51.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 6 5 3 1 700-500 MB RH 70 72 73 73 75 75 74 72 71 68 68 67 66 63 61 59 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 5 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -17 -18 -18 -8 6 49 68 72 92 95 106 108 105 88 57 6 12 200 MB DIV 78 82 68 69 91 114 134 84 101 109 85 68 91 112 81 22 9 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -1 1 1 -2 -3 -4 -8 -6 1 -4 -1 0 0 21 43 LAND (KM) 616 609 608 627 654 741 838 982 1078 1260 1454 1649 1799 1806 1688 1491 1331 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 12.8 13.0 13.1 13.1 13.1 13.4 13.9 14.6 15.1 15.5 15.7 15.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 104.1 104.6 105.1 105.7 106.2 107.7 109.8 112.2 115.3 118.7 122.1 124.8 126.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 6 5 5 9 11 14 16 17 15 12 6 5 10 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 29 26 22 19 19 24 16 13 24 17 15 15 8 6 4 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 589 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. 1. 5. 12. 18. 24. 28. 32. 34. 37. 38. 39. 40. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 9. 8. 6. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 14. 20. 28. 35. 37. 38. 39. 40. 40. 39. 39. 36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.6 104.1 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942020 INVEST 09/28/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.80 6.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.1 19.6 to 1.4 0.14 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 77.6 -33.0 to 160.6 0.57 4.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.39 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.20 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 49.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.85 -5.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.92 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 17.7% 16.1% 0.0% 0.0% 17.1% 20.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 6.4% 2.2% 1.1% 0.7% 4.9% 17.5% 21.2% Bayesian: 0.6% 4.0% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.8% 1.8% 3.3% Consensus: 0.6% 9.4% 6.4% 0.4% 0.2% 7.6% 13.1% 8.2% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942020 INVEST 09/28/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##