* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PILAR EP182017 09/24/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 41 41 41 43 42 36 27 20 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 41 41 41 41 43 42 33 30 28 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 40 42 43 44 44 46 45 36 31 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 10 12 10 9 20 36 44 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 -2 -2 -3 -3 1 1 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 98 97 101 133 160 177 190 193 195 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.1 29.9 29.9 30.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 165 164 164 164 165 164 162 162 166 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.9 -51.5 -51.9 -52.2 -51.8 -52.2 -52.0 -52.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 10 7 7 9 5 8 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 56 51 50 47 43 37 37 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 77 75 87 90 84 73 90 65 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 23 28 44 40 22 26 35 41 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -1 0 1 0 0 1 1 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 61 55 53 57 66 47 22 -14 -44 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.7 20.0 20.3 20.7 21.1 22.0 23.0 24.0 24.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 105.9 106.1 106.2 106.2 106.1 106.1 106.5 107.0 107.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 3 4 4 5 5 5 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 26 25 24 23 24 27 17 44 46 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 7 CX,CY: -2/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 382 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 8.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 12. 17. 21. 24. 24. 25. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. -0. -8. -20. -26. -30. -30. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 2. -4. -13. -20. -26. -27. -29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 19.7 105.9 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP182017 PILAR 09/24/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.77 4.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.49 3.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 24.4 0.0 to 106.7 0.23 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 2.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.34 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.64 3.4 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.60 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 251.6 735.9 to -82.5 0.59 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 1.7 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.9 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.7% 26.6% 19.4% 16.1% 14.6% 21.1% 15.6% 0.0% Logistic: 10.3% 25.8% 17.9% 14.8% 10.9% 9.6% 1.7% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.3% 7.9% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 8.4% 20.1% 13.0% 10.4% 8.5% 10.4% 5.8% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182017 PILAR 09/24/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##