* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LOWELL EP172020 09/25/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 26 24 23 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 28 26 24 23 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 28 25 23 21 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 17 19 20 24 23 28 26 28 33 31 25 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 0 1 4 4 -2 -1 -2 -3 -3 -4 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 254 246 241 254 261 278 292 277 264 272 294 303 339 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.3 24.0 24.0 24.5 24.4 24.5 25.0 25.5 25.6 25.8 26.0 26.0 26.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 106 103 104 109 108 109 114 118 119 121 122 122 125 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.2 -52.4 -52.5 -52.6 -52.8 -53.3 -53.5 -54.1 -54.2 -54.8 -55.0 -54.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 4 4 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 42 41 39 37 34 34 34 34 34 31 28 31 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 14 13 12 11 9 7 6 5 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 27 25 24 14 19 29 12 14 10 -6 -25 -28 -63 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -19 -20 -20 -20 -18 -30 -8 6 -7 -19 -28 -27 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 7 4 0 1 -1 -4 -3 -2 -2 1 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1645 1770 1887 1981 2049 1779 1499 1261 1045 865 730 640 622 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.6 21.5 21.4 21.4 21.3 21.2 21.1 21.1 21.1 21.3 21.8 22.5 23.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 129.8 131.1 132.4 133.8 135.2 137.8 140.5 142.8 144.9 146.7 148.2 149.5 150.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 13 13 13 13 12 10 9 8 7 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 727 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 1.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 13. 15. 17. 17. 16. 15. 14. 13. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. -0. -5. -12. -19. -25. -26. -26. -26. -27. -30. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -11. -14. -15. -16. -17. -16. -15. -13. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -2. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -9. -11. -12. -14. -14. -15. -14. -11. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -6. -7. -11. -17. -23. -30. -36. -43. -46. -46. -48. -49. -51. -53. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 21.6 129.8 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172020 LOWELL 09/25/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.33 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.3 19.6 to 1.4 0.02 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -19.4 -33.0 to 160.6 0.07 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.88 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 274.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.60 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 36.7 56.6 to 0.0 0.35 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.26 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.8% 4.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172020 LOWELL 09/25/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##