* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LOWELL EP172020 09/24/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 39 37 36 33 29 25 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 39 37 36 33 29 25 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 39 38 37 35 31 27 24 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 10 8 10 14 20 24 26 31 32 37 32 33 26 20 18 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 2 1 0 2 1 4 0 1 -5 -1 0 -1 2 4 4 SHEAR DIR 310 286 272 238 233 240 253 269 281 274 254 271 291 306 359 25 15 SST (C) 24.7 24.6 24.4 23.9 23.7 23.9 24.5 24.2 24.6 25.4 25.6 25.7 26.1 26.2 26.2 26.4 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 110 109 107 102 100 102 109 106 110 118 120 120 123 124 124 126 126 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.1 -52.0 -52.0 -52.1 -52.0 -52.3 -52.6 -53.0 -53.4 -53.9 -54.6 -55.3 -55.6 -55.5 -55.1 -54.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.2 -0.2 0.1 -0.3 -0.5 -0.5 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 5 4 5 5 6 7 7 6 4 3 700-500 MB RH 50 46 46 43 40 38 33 32 33 32 32 30 25 30 36 39 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 19 19 19 18 16 13 11 10 8 7 6 5 5 3 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 49 43 39 43 37 39 24 24 21 21 7 -13 -34 -25 -36 -74 -91 200 MB DIV 5 -14 -7 -1 1 -18 -18 -28 -18 4 -9 -14 -21 -35 -19 -32 -8 700-850 TADV 8 11 8 8 5 2 -6 1 -2 -2 0 0 1 1 2 3 5 LAND (KM) 1187 1257 1332 1430 1529 1756 1944 1936 1647 1369 1121 915 769 689 691 750 855 LAT (DEG N) 21.4 21.7 21.9 21.9 21.9 21.8 21.7 21.4 21.5 21.5 21.4 21.7 22.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 124.4 125.5 126.5 127.6 128.7 131.1 133.7 136.3 139.1 141.8 144.2 146.3 148.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 11 12 12 13 13 12 11 9 7 6 6 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 2 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 668 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -2. -8. -14. -19. -23. -25. -26. -27. -28. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -6. -10. -13. -16. -17. -18. -17. -16. -16. -16. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -4. -7. -11. -15. -22. -30. -37. -43. -48. -50. -53. -54. -57. -56. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 21.4 124.4 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172020 LOWELL 09/24/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 65.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.23 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.3 19.6 to 1.4 0.51 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.2 -33.0 to 160.6 0.15 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.43 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 333.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.53 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 23.8 56.6 to 0.0 0.58 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.16 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.5 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.2% 6.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.1% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172020 LOWELL 09/24/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##