* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LOWELL EP172020 09/24/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 38 35 33 32 28 24 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 38 35 33 32 28 24 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 38 36 33 32 28 25 21 18 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 8 9 8 10 15 19 22 26 28 32 34 31 30 21 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 2 2 0 2 3 5 2 1 -2 0 0 1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 326 304 290 278 249 247 243 258 271 278 274 263 279 303 326 N/A N/A SST (C) 25.4 24.9 24.6 24.8 24.5 24.5 24.0 24.4 24.2 24.5 25.1 25.4 25.5 26.0 26.4 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 117 112 109 111 108 108 103 107 105 109 115 117 118 123 127 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.2 -52.1 -52.0 -52.0 -52.1 -52.1 -52.4 -52.6 -53.2 -53.5 -54.3 -54.7 -55.5 -55.7 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 -0.5 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 2 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 5 5 7 6 6 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 51 47 46 44 39 35 32 31 33 31 31 28 28 34 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 19 19 19 18 17 15 13 12 10 8 7 6 5 4 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 50 48 40 36 39 37 28 19 31 29 21 0 -31 -34 -14 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 0 0 -12 -5 -4 -16 -26 -17 -27 -11 0 -17 -25 -10 -20 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 8 8 11 8 7 2 2 -4 0 -2 -7 -4 0 2 2 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1115 1173 1237 1320 1405 1604 1807 1981 1905 1646 1378 1146 946 810 755 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.1 21.3 21.5 21.6 21.7 21.7 21.7 21.5 21.5 21.4 21.4 21.6 22.1 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 123.2 124.2 125.1 126.2 127.2 129.4 131.6 134.0 136.6 139.1 141.7 144.0 146.1 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 10 10 10 11 12 12 12 12 10 10 8 7 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 579 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 3. 2. 1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. -3. -8. -13. -17. -19. -21. -22. -24. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -11. -14. -16. -17. -17. -17. -16. -14. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -3. -2. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -7. -8. -12. -16. -21. -28. -34. -40. -46. -50. -53. -53. -55. -55. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 21.1 123.2 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172020 LOWELL 09/24/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 71.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.28 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.4 19.6 to 1.4 0.62 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.2 -33.0 to 160.6 0.15 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.42 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 313.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.55 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.8 56.6 to 0.0 0.84 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.28 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.6 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.2% 7.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172020 LOWELL 09/24/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##