* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LOWELL EP172020 09/22/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 43 43 44 44 47 52 55 59 58 54 51 50 48 46 44 V (KT) LAND 40 41 43 43 44 44 47 52 55 59 58 54 51 50 48 46 44 V (KT) LGEM 40 43 45 46 46 44 44 43 42 41 39 35 32 29 26 23 21 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 9 7 6 5 5 4 7 7 9 11 17 11 15 15 17 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 1 0 0 -1 -3 -4 0 0 6 6 9 4 5 5 1 SHEAR DIR 36 32 22 42 69 334 360 316 320 284 272 280 286 288 280 263 251 SST (C) 28.2 27.9 27.6 27.1 26.9 25.8 26.1 26.0 26.4 26.0 25.0 25.3 25.3 25.3 24.8 24.8 25.2 POT. INT. (KT) 147 144 141 135 133 121 124 122 127 123 112 115 116 117 112 111 114 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.8 -52.1 -52.1 -51.8 -52.1 -51.8 -52.1 -51.6 -51.9 -51.1 -51.3 -51.1 -51.6 -51.9 -52.5 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.0 0.9 1.0 0.7 0.7 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 3 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 65 64 65 64 61 59 54 51 48 44 40 37 34 36 32 30 26 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 20 21 20 21 21 22 24 25 28 27 27 26 26 25 23 20 850 MB ENV VOR 42 46 46 41 34 26 33 41 48 47 56 63 79 89 89 81 63 200 MB DIV 47 44 19 7 23 19 12 -14 1 0 0 -23 -10 -17 4 -6 -18 700-850 TADV -8 -10 -8 -1 0 3 4 5 6 5 6 3 3 4 4 4 4 LAND (KM) 725 757 808 834 877 982 1105 1207 1336 1481 1630 1789 1945 2122 1839 1600 1424 LAT (DEG N) 17.5 18.0 18.5 18.9 19.3 19.7 20.1 20.2 20.1 20.1 20.3 20.3 20.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 113.9 115.1 116.2 117.3 118.4 120.1 121.9 123.5 125.1 126.9 128.8 130.6 132.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 11 9 9 8 7 8 9 8 8 9 12 12 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 10 8 6 4 4 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 441 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. 13. 14. 14. 13. 11. 10. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. 1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 2. 2. 2. 4. 7. 9. 13. 12. 11. 8. 8. 6. 4. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 7. 12. 15. 19. 18. 14. 11. 10. 8. 6. 4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 17.5 113.9 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172020 LOWELL 09/22/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.55 4.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.4 19.6 to 1.4 0.67 4.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.0 -33.0 to 160.6 0.32 2.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 2.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.21 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.04 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 163.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.72 -3.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.4 2.2 to -1.9 1.00 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.1% 23.2% 16.9% 15.2% 0.0% 18.7% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 1.6% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.5% 0.2% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.6% 8.3% 5.8% 5.2% 0.0% 6.4% 0.1% 0.1% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172020 LOWELL 09/22/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##