* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARINA EP162020 09/16/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 30 25 21 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 30 25 21 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 29 25 21 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 8 9 12 15 16 18 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 4 4 4 4 3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 152 173 191 194 211 219 220 208 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.9 24.5 24.0 23.5 23.3 23.1 22.9 22.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 111 107 101 96 93 91 89 89 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.9 -51.8 -51.8 -52.0 -52.2 -52.4 -52.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 45 45 44 43 40 30 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 19 18 17 15 13 10 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 38 34 31 28 12 6 -1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -18 -6 -5 -16 -10 -3 2 -22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 7 9 8 8 10 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1053 1087 1126 1164 1205 1291 1407 1538 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.4 22.8 23.2 23.5 23.8 24.0 23.7 23.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 123.6 124.3 125.0 125.6 126.2 127.2 128.3 129.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 7 6 5 5 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 538 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 1. -2. -4. -6. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 1. -2. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -10. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -7. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. -13. -13. -14. -15. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -11. -17. -19. -19. -19. -18. -17. -15. -14. -13. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -11. -12. -11. -9. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -5. -10. -14. -19. -25. -33. -41. -45. -48. -50. -52. -53. -54. -54. -55. -56. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 22.4 123.6 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP162020 KARINA 09/16/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 66.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.24 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.2 19.6 to 1.4 0.52 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -11.0 -33.0 to 160.6 0.11 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.35 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.68 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 297.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.57 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 2.5 56.6 to 0.0 0.96 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.55 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.4 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.9% 5.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162020 KARINA 09/16/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##