* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARINA EP162020 09/16/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 36 32 28 24 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 36 32 28 24 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 36 32 28 25 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 9 9 10 13 15 16 16 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 3 3 4 5 3 0 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 127 152 182 199 198 205 212 210 203 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.4 24.9 24.3 23.8 23.2 22.9 22.9 23.1 23.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 117 112 105 99 92 89 89 92 97 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.8 -51.9 -51.9 -51.9 -52.2 -52.2 -52.6 -52.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 1 0 1 1 1 2 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 49 46 46 45 41 33 26 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 22 21 19 18 17 13 11 8 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 52 48 46 42 39 18 16 10 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -17 -18 -8 -4 -16 -10 -3 -10 -15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 3 7 7 7 9 6 13 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1099 1124 1157 1192 1230 1312 1424 1564 1709 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.4 22.0 22.5 22.8 23.1 23.3 23.3 22.7 22.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 123.3 124.1 124.9 125.5 126.1 127.1 128.3 129.5 130.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 6 5 5 6 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 560 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. -0. -3. -6. -8. -10. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -9. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. -14. -15. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -3. -4. -7. -11. -18. -23. -23. -23. -22. -20. -18. -17. -15. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -12. -16. -24. -31. -40. -47. -49. -51. -52. -53. -53. -53. -53. -54. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 21.4 123.3 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP162020 KARINA 09/16/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 64.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.22 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.3 19.6 to 1.4 0.51 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -12.6 -33.0 to 160.6 0.11 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.56 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 330.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.53 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.49 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.5 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.9% 5.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162020 KARINA 09/16/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##