* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARINA EP162020 09/15/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 51 51 49 46 37 29 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 51 51 49 46 37 29 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 52 52 50 46 37 29 23 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 15 13 14 12 11 13 14 18 20 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 11 7 5 4 4 3 5 3 1 -2 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 81 72 80 110 143 185 195 202 209 210 216 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.8 26.0 25.7 25.4 25.1 24.4 23.4 23.2 23.0 23.0 23.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 132 123 120 117 114 106 94 91 89 90 91 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.9 -51.8 -51.5 -51.5 -51.8 -51.9 -52.3 -52.4 -52.8 -52.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 3 3 1 0 1 1 2 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 60 55 53 52 46 44 41 35 29 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 25 24 24 24 23 19 17 14 11 8 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 50 40 43 47 47 37 21 6 -4 -17 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 13 15 13 -9 -18 -12 2 8 -5 -9 -19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -4 -1 0 7 11 10 11 11 13 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1011 1026 1026 1032 1048 1101 1155 1215 1295 1398 1505 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.4 20.1 20.8 21.4 22.0 23.0 23.7 24.0 23.9 23.7 23.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 120.2 120.9 121.6 122.4 123.2 124.6 125.6 126.4 127.2 128.2 129.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 9 7 5 4 4 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 525 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -9. -12. -14. -16. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -4. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -10. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. -11. -12. -13. -14. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -4. -8. -14. -19. -24. -26. -25. -23. -21. -19. -17. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. -1. -4. -13. -21. -29. -37. -46. -51. -51. -51. -50. -49. -50. -49. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 19.4 120.2 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP162020 KARINA 09/15/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 71.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.28 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.4 19.6 to 1.4 0.34 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.8 -33.0 to 160.6 0.18 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.67 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 348.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.51 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.2 to -1.9 0.70 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.2% 18.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 1.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.1% 6.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162020 KARINA 09/15/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##