* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARINA EP162020 09/13/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 40 40 40 39 37 32 29 25 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 41 40 40 40 39 37 32 29 25 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 41 42 41 40 37 34 29 24 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 14 15 17 15 14 18 14 7 8 11 18 21 21 7 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 2 0 -4 3 2 0 2 2 1 0 -3 -1 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 34 31 37 35 50 62 69 104 110 182 206 206 210 216 243 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.1 28.0 28.0 27.7 27.3 26.3 25.7 25.5 25.3 24.6 23.7 23.4 23.6 23.7 24.4 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 145 143 144 141 136 125 119 117 114 107 98 95 98 99 107 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.4 -51.8 -52.0 -52.1 -52.0 -52.1 -52.0 -52.2 -52.3 -52.5 -52.4 -52.8 -53.0 -53.4 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 4 4 4 3 2 1 1 1 2 3 3 3 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 67 66 67 64 61 60 56 56 52 49 41 33 26 21 18 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 19 19 19 20 19 19 17 15 13 11 9 7 5 3 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 52 48 48 43 46 51 48 52 43 45 21 32 21 38 17 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 42 45 29 28 31 30 11 -18 -16 -5 1 -9 -11 -25 -1 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -5 -6 -2 -3 -2 0 0 6 7 12 6 12 7 11 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 829 860 876 894 922 1006 1075 1085 1133 1207 1286 1397 1531 1727 1937 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.6 18.0 18.3 18.7 19.1 19.6 20.2 21.0 21.7 22.1 22.4 22.5 22.4 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 115.6 116.4 117.1 118.0 118.8 120.3 121.6 122.7 124.0 125.2 126.3 127.6 129.0 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 8 9 8 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 8 10 12 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 10 9 10 9 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 412 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. 12. 12. 11. 9. 6. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -3. -5. -8. -11. -13. -15. -15. -16. -14. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -8. -11. -15. -19. -23. -28. -30. -30. -28. -26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 17.6 115.6 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP162020 KARINA 09/13/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.56 4.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.8 19.6 to 1.4 0.21 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.0 -33.0 to 160.6 0.35 2.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 2.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.39 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.06 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 182.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.70 -4.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.6 2.2 to -1.9 1.00 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.8% 15.8% 15.4% 11.0% 0.0% 14.0% 13.8% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 5.4% 5.2% 3.7% 0.0% 4.7% 4.6% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162020 KARINA 09/13/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##