* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JULIO EP152020 09/06/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 37 40 42 46 51 55 58 59 60 62 63 65 67 69 72 V (KT) LAND 35 36 37 40 42 46 51 55 58 59 60 62 63 65 67 69 72 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 36 37 37 38 39 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 16 17 16 14 10 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 0 0 3 -1 0 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 83 89 92 93 101 96 138 200 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.5 29.2 28.3 28.5 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 162 158 149 150 144 142 140 139 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.3 -52.7 -52.6 -52.4 -52.7 -52.3 -52.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 8 8 6 8 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 79 80 81 80 81 77 69 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 7 9 9 9 10 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 38 25 18 26 36 31 38 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 71 43 20 37 51 9 18 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -3 -3 -2 0 0 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 203 227 258 301 361 389 314 269 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.3 16.8 17.4 18.0 18.5 19.4 20.2 20.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 103.5 104.9 106.3 107.4 108.5 110.1 110.9 111.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 13 12 10 7 4 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 24 22 11 12 7 5 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 480 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 10. 15. 18. 21. 23. 25. 27. 28. 29. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 5. 8. 11. 16. 20. 23. 24. 25. 27. 28. 30. 32. 34. 37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 16.3 103.5 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152020 JULIO 09/06/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.71 5.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.6 19.6 to 1.4 0.17 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.4 -33.0 to 160.6 0.40 2.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.35 1.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.56 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.12 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 49.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.85 -4.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.67 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.9% 17.1% 14.7% 10.2% 7.6% 14.4% 15.3% 10.3% Logistic: 0.2% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.6% 1.2% 1.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 2.0% 6.1% 5.0% 3.5% 2.6% 5.0% 5.5% 3.9% DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152020 JULIO 09/06/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##