* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISELLE EP142020 08/28/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 48 47 45 42 37 31 25 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 48 47 45 42 37 31 25 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 51 50 48 45 38 30 24 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 26 26 25 22 24 23 20 15 14 11 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 6 8 8 0 0 3 1 5 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 65 59 61 57 61 78 96 123 123 95 100 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.7 27.5 26.1 25.7 25.3 25.1 25.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 151 150 150 138 123 118 113 110 111 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -51.1 -51.0 -50.5 -51.0 -51.1 -50.8 -51.1 -50.8 -51.0 -51.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 2 3 2 2 2 1 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 67 67 70 70 73 73 68 59 52 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 16 16 16 15 12 9 8 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 79 72 69 51 39 19 6 28 46 44 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 47 59 55 52 31 11 19 7 2 -6 -14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -5 -4 -8 -12 -9 -5 0 -1 -2 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 801 742 684 633 584 487 336 318 397 444 489 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.6 18.1 18.5 19.0 19.4 20.7 22.4 23.5 23.9 23.9 23.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 115.2 114.9 114.6 114.4 114.2 114.1 114.3 115.1 116.1 116.8 117.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 6 7 7 5 4 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 16 14 13 12 12 4 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 4 CX,CY: 3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 693 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 32.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 8. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -11. -12. -13. -14. -15. -15. -16. -17. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. -12. -12. -13. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 2. 2. 1. -2. -5. -8. -11. -12. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -5. -8. -13. -19. -25. -30. -34. -38. -39. -39. -38. -36. -34. -31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 17.6 115.2 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142020 ISELLE 08/28/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.56 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.8 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.8 -33.0 to 160.6 0.42 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 32.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.15 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.10 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 234.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.64 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.8 2.2 to -1.9 0.10 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142020 ISELLE 08/28/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##