* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISELLE EP142020 08/27/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 40 39 38 38 37 34 29 25 21 18 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 40 40 39 38 38 37 34 29 25 21 18 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 41 40 39 38 36 32 27 22 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 27 27 26 21 24 22 24 18 18 19 17 17 11 13 12 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 2 2 3 3 7 1 -1 0 2 4 4 4 1 1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 75 74 80 68 64 68 74 80 111 127 121 111 106 91 84 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.3 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.6 27.0 26.1 25.9 26.0 26.1 26.1 26.6 27.3 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 155 153 152 151 151 151 149 132 122 118 119 121 121 127 135 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.0 -50.8 -50.9 -51.2 -50.7 -51.4 -50.8 -51.3 -50.8 -51.1 -51.0 -51.3 -51.6 -52.1 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 4 3 3 3 3 3 1 2 1 1 0 1 1 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 63 65 66 68 71 76 73 72 63 61 57 53 53 59 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 15 15 15 18 18 16 13 12 11 10 8 7 8 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 68 77 88 80 72 56 38 24 23 41 50 44 43 52 59 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 73 78 65 50 44 71 31 20 31 24 22 6 -7 -19 -18 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -3 -1 -2 0 0 -9 -8 0 3 1 0 0 0 1 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 916 873 830 788 746 645 531 450 421 445 468 510 579 641 696 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.8 17.2 17.5 17.8 18.0 18.8 19.8 21.1 22.1 22.4 22.3 22.3 22.5 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 115.9 115.7 115.5 115.2 114.9 114.4 113.9 114.1 115.2 115.8 116.0 116.5 117.4 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 4 4 5 6 6 5 2 2 3 3 4 5 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 21 18 17 14 14 13 11 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 4 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 5 CX,CY: 3/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 657 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 13. 16. 17. 18. 18. 18. 17. 17. 17. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -8. -11. -14. -16. -17. -16. -15. -15. -16. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. -13. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 0. 3. 3. 2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -11. -15. -19. -22. -24. -25. -22. -20. -17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 16.8 115.9 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142020 ISELLE 08/27/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.66 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.0 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.0 -33.0 to 160.6 0.49 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.45 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.14 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 189.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.69 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.29 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142020 ISELLE 08/27/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##