* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HERNAN EP132020 08/28/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 23 22 22 22 22 23 25 27 27 26 26 26 27 30 33 38 V (KT) LAND 25 23 25 25 25 25 26 28 30 30 28 29 29 30 33 36 40 V (KT) LGEM 25 23 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 11 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 58 58 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.8 27.2 26.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 153 136 124 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.1 -49.9 -50.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 70 71 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 47 46 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 37 47 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -14 -17 -20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 12 -4 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.1 23.6 24.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 109.5 110.5 111.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 16 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 366 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 25. 28. 30. 31. 32. 32. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 4. 1. -1. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -10. -9. -7. -6. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -3. -3. -2. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -10. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 0. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 5. 8. 13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 23.1 109.5 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132020 HERNAN 08/28/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.67 4.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.1 19.6 to 1.4 0.47 3.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.0 -33.0 to 160.6 0.36 2.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.71 2.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.03 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 75.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.82 -4.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.40 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 14.9% 12.5% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 0.0% 5.1% 4.2% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 13.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132020 HERNAN 08/28/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##