* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GENEVIEVE EP122020 08/21/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 31 29 26 23 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 31 29 26 23 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 31 27 24 22 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 15 19 17 17 18 22 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 8 3 6 8 4 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 216 177 173 183 187 180 208 198 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.9 24.2 24.2 23.4 22.9 22.7 21.8 21.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 112 105 105 97 91 88 78 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.1 -51.2 -51.3 -51.4 -51.5 -51.5 -51.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.1 0.2 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 1 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 55 53 53 53 50 45 46 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 12 11 11 11 9 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 14 5 17 11 -4 0 1 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -1 4 19 5 20 10 28 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -15 -12 -9 -10 -6 0 0 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 215 214 235 320 380 480 532 470 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 25.4 26.2 27.0 27.7 28.3 29.2 30.0 30.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 115.2 116.2 117.2 118.3 119.3 120.9 122.0 122.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 12 12 11 10 7 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 563 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -2. -5. -8. -10. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. -2. -9. -15. -19. -21. -21. -22. -24. -27. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -3. -3. -4. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. -1. -1. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. -12. -12. -12. -13. -14. -15. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -8. -10. -10. -10. -9. -9. -8. -7. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -14. -15. -15. -14. -11. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -6. -9. -12. -17. -23. -32. -36. -40. -45. -49. -53. -59. -62. -67. -70. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 25.4 115.2 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122020 GENEVIEVE 08/21/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.25 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.1 19.6 to 1.4 0.19 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.4 -33.0 to 160.6 0.22 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.35 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.89 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 240.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.63 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.55 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.6 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.9% 7.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122020 GENEVIEVE 08/21/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##