* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEN EP102020 08/17/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 28 32 36 40 46 49 52 54 56 56 55 55 53 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 27 28 32 36 40 46 49 52 54 56 56 55 55 53 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 24 24 24 25 27 30 33 36 39 42 43 42 40 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 18 16 14 13 9 7 7 6 6 7 10 12 19 19 23 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -4 -3 -5 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 0 -1 0 1 5 5 0 SHEAR DIR 34 40 52 53 60 76 70 107 121 116 94 123 103 100 92 88 91 SST (C) 27.7 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.8 27.6 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.7 28.0 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 140 141 140 139 139 141 139 142 142 142 139 142 142 142 143 143 145 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.4 -52.5 -52.6 -52.7 -52.8 -53.1 -53.3 -53.5 -53.5 -53.4 -53.2 -53.4 -53.1 -53.0 -52.9 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 5 6 5 6 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 49 49 50 54 53 56 53 52 50 48 45 43 41 42 44 46 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 5 5 5 6 6 6 5 4 4 850 MB ENV VOR -25 -26 -23 -21 -15 -13 -21 -13 0 22 26 42 36 15 4 -4 -21 200 MB DIV 4 10 10 27 25 16 -30 -13 7 2 -26 -41 -27 -23 -50 -46 -41 700-850 TADV -3 -4 -3 -1 -1 0 -2 0 0 -1 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 LAND (KM) 2036 1960 1889 1817 1746 1611 1509 1427 1369 1359 1388 1418 1465 1485 1500 1487 1482 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.1 15.1 15.1 15.1 14.9 14.5 13.6 12.7 11.7 10.6 9.8 9.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 136.2 136.9 137.6 138.3 139.0 140.4 141.6 142.9 144.1 145.0 145.7 146.2 146.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 6 7 8 7 7 5 4 2 2 1 1 3 HEAT CONTENT 10 13 14 15 19 13 8 10 13 14 10 11 14 15 17 18 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 640 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 17. 22. 26. 29. 31. 32. 33. 34. 35. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 15. 21. 24. 27. 29. 31. 31. 30. 30. 28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.0 136.2 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102020 TEN 08/17/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.68 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.4 19.6 to 1.4 0.18 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.2 -33.0 to 160.6 0.25 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.11 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 150.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.74 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 61.0 56.6 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.45 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.8% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102020 TEN 08/17/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##