* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEN EP102020 08/15/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 29 29 29 28 29 28 29 32 32 33 34 36 38 39 41 V (KT) LAND 30 30 29 29 29 28 29 28 29 32 32 33 34 36 38 39 41 V (KT) LGEM 30 29 29 28 27 25 24 24 24 25 25 26 26 27 28 30 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 26 27 24 23 18 18 19 16 17 16 15 9 4 4 6 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -6 -4 -3 -4 -4 -5 -5 -4 -5 -4 -4 -3 0 6 10 11 SHEAR DIR 53 46 50 61 65 56 55 48 73 78 95 110 132 82 147 233 267 SST (C) 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.0 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 141 140 140 140 140 142 141 138 137 137 138 136 135 135 134 135 136 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.1 -52.2 -52.1 -52.2 -52.2 -52.0 -52.3 -52.3 -52.6 -52.7 -52.9 -53.1 -53.0 -52.9 -52.8 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 2 3 3 3 3 3 4 3 4 4 5 5 6 5 5 700-500 MB RH 59 58 55 54 54 52 53 51 52 55 56 56 55 50 49 44 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 9 8 8 6 6 5 5 7 6 7 7 6 6 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 22 18 18 14 13 -11 -12 -31 -29 -11 19 15 35 57 75 96 79 200 MB DIV 2 -4 -26 -36 -29 -26 -32 0 6 1 6 -14 -12 -11 0 13 -14 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -2 0 3 5 2 0 0 0 0 -1 LAND (KM) 2389 2369 2348 2328 2307 2272 2220 2148 2111 2070 2015 1972 1960 1949 1956 1945 1919 LAT (DEG N) 13.4 13.4 13.4 13.4 13.4 13.8 14.1 14.4 14.6 14.6 14.4 14.2 14.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 133.3 133.5 133.7 133.9 134.1 134.3 134.7 135.3 135.6 136.0 136.6 137.1 137.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 2 2 3 2 1 0 0 0 2 HEAT CONTENT 10 10 10 10 11 13 12 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 653 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 16. 20. 23. 25. 27. 27. 28. 28. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. -10. -7. -5. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 10. 10. 10. 9. 8. 6. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -8. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.4 133.3 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102020 TEN 08/15/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.64 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.0 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -18.6 -33.0 to 160.6 0.07 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.57 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.07 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 172.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.71 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 31.8 56.6 to 0.0 0.44 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.80 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102020 TEN 08/15/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##